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采用COPERTⅣ模型计算佛山市公交车、摩托车和小型客车排放因子,结合保有量、年平均行驶里程计算其排放量,对佛山市公交车出行环境效果及尾气削减潜力进行情景分析。结果表明:2011年佛山市公交车CO、VOC、NOx和PM的排放量为804.57、283.85、3 365.32和73.00 t。单人单次公交车出行CO和VOC的排放量较摩托车和小型客车低,但NOx则较高。公交车载客人数从17人上升至25、35、45人,单人单次出行每公里排放量分别下降32.00%、51.43%和57.50%。佛山市低排放标准的柴油公交车全部更换成国Ⅳ排放标准柴油车,CO、VOC、NOx和PM的年排放量分别削减611.66、151.6、1 231.18和58.39 t。EEV标准天然气公交车替代柴油公交车可减少NOx和PM的排放,但对VOC的削减并无优势。佛山市现有柴油公交车更换成EEV标准天然气公交车,CO、NOx和PM的年排放量分别削减293.71 t、2 086.87 t和70.34 t,但VOC的年排放量升高228.01 t。
Using COPERT Ⅳ model to calculate the emission factors of buses, motorcycles and minibuses in Foshan, and calculating the emissions by the amount of holdings and average annual mileage, this paper analyzes the environmental effects of bus travel and the potential of tail gas reduction in Foshan. The results show that the emission of CO, VOC, NOx and PM in Foshan buses in 2011 was 804.57,283.85,3365.32 and 73.00 t. Single-passenger single-bus trips CO and VOC emissions are lower than those for motorcycles and minibuses, but NOx is higher. The number of passengers carrying buses increased from 17 to 25,35 and 45 respectively. The emissions per kilometer of single-trip trips decreased by 32.00%, 51.43% and 57.50% respectively. Foshan City, all of the low-emission diesel buses to replace the country Ⅳ emission standard diesel vehicles, CO, VOC, NOx and PM annual emissions were reduced 611.66,151.6,1 231.18 and 58.39 t. EEV standard gas buses replace diesel buses to reduce NOx and PM emissions but have no advantage in reducing VOCs. Foshan City, the existing diesel buses replaced with EEV standard natural gas buses, CO, NOx and PM annual emissions were reduced 293.71 t, 2 086.87 t and 70.34 t, but the annual emissions of VOC increased 228.01 t.