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近些年来,发达国家对中国的生产外包不断扩大,把大量低端中间产品生产的价值链环节转移至中国,充分利用中国丰裕而廉价的劳动力资源进行生产,由此中间产品贸易迅速增加。这种贸易模式,不仅提高了中国对不同劳动力的需求,而且还改变了劳动力的就业风险和稳定性。本文利用动态面板数据模型单独分析中间产品贸易对中国工业总体与分部门的劳动力需求的影响。研究结果表明中间产品出口增加了劳动力需求,而其进口对劳动力需求变化的影响是负的。此外,中间产品贸易加大了中国制造业就业的风险与不稳定性。
In recent years, the developed countries have continuously expanded their production outsourcing in China by transferring the value chain links of a large number of low-end intermediate products to China and making full use of China’s abundant and cheap labor resources for production. As a result, the trade in intermediate products rapidly increased. This trade model has not only increased China’s demand for different workforce, but has also changed the employment risk and stability of the workforce. This paper uses a dynamic panel data model to separately analyze the impact of intermediate product trade on labor demand in China’s industry as a whole and in the sub-sectors. The results show that the export of intermediate products increased labor demand, while the impact of imports on labor demand changes was negative. In addition, the trade in intermediate products has increased the risks and instabilities in China’s manufacturing employment.