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油田企业效益预测中的油价参数是对未来一段时期油价水平的预期,有着较多的主观性、不确定性和不可控性。因此,在油田企业效益预测中,采用什么样的油价参数作为油田企业效益预测基础十分必要。文章阐明了油田企业效益预测中油价参数确定的意义,并对国内外油公司确定油价参数的通行做法进行了总结,在此基础上提出了适应当前油价波动不确定性情况下油田企业效益预测油价参数的确定模型及方法思路。
The oil price parameter in the forecast of oilfield business efficiency is the expected oil price level in the future period with more subjectivity, uncertainty and uncontrollability. Therefore, it is very necessary to use what kind of oil price parameter to predict the benefit of oilfield enterprises. The article expounds the significance of determining oil price parameters in oilfield enterprises’ efficiency prediction and sums up the common practice of domestic and foreign oil companies in determining oil price parameters. Based on this, it puts forward some suggestions that oilfield enterprises can effectively predict oil price by adapting to the current uncertainty of oil price volatility Parameter Determining Model and Method.