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选取1985—2008年我国二氧化碳排放量、国内生产总值和能源消费等数据资料,通过时间序列分析考察二氧化碳排放与经济增长、能源消费之间的关系,得出:经济增长通常会拉动能源消费的增长,能源消费增加又是二氧化碳排放增加的原因。能源消费并不一定使得GDP增加,GDP与二氧化碳排放量增加的直接因果关系并不显著。在经济发展过程中,从理论分析上,可以实现经济增长和能源消费增加的脱钩,建立不依赖能源消费特别是高碳的化石能源消费的低碳经济发展模式。
This paper chooses the data of China’s carbon dioxide emissions, GDP and energy consumption from 1985 to 2008, examines the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth and energy consumption through time series analysis and finds that economic growth usually drives energy consumption Growth, increased energy consumption is another reason for the increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Energy consumption does not necessarily make GDP increase, and the direct causal relationship between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions is not significant. In the process of economic development, from the theoretical analysis, we can realize the decoupling between economic growth and increased energy consumption and establish a low-carbon economic development model that does not rely on energy consumption, especially high-carbon fossil energy consumption.