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缘于历史因素,中国的地震预报是政府规定而且由法律维持的。与文化大革命的社会政治动乱重合,1966～1976年是地震预报的爆发期,预报热潮在1975年预报海城地震时达至巅峰。海城预报的实现主要是因为前震序列异常显著和当时一些地方官员发布临震预警毫无顾虑。自1976年毁灭性的唐山地震以来,预报信心日趋下降,而抗震设防愈加得到重视。2008年5月12日汶川MW7.9地震再次揭示了地震预报暗淡的现实。尽管有大量的前兆监测台网和精心设置的系列会商制度,但汶川地震前没有发现足以促成预报的明显异常。反之,汶川地震无可辩驳地展现出抗震设防的无比重要性。与1976年唐山震区的毫无抗震设防不同,2008年的汶川震区已有抗震设防要求,而设防的建筑比不设防建筑遭受的损失要小得多。但是,抗震规范的实施远远落后于颁布。假如抗震设计规范的执行更为严格,建设选址更为明智,这次地震造成的许多死亡本来是可以避免的,财产损失也应大大减少。中国的地震预报工作提供了有益的经验和教训,最重要的教训是:不论地震预报的前景如何,依靠预报来防御地震灾害在目前是不现实的,而基于地震危险性的科学分析进行抗震设防才是有效的减灾途径。
Due to historical reasons, the earthquake prediction in China is regulated by the government and maintained by law. Coincides with the social and political turmoil in the Cultural Revolution. The period from 1966 to 1976 was the period of earthquake prediction. The wave of forecast reached its peak when the Haicheng earthquake was predicted in 1975. Haicheng forecast is mainly due to the anomalous foreline sequence was significant and some local officials issued a temporary earthquake warning without any worries. Since the devastating Tangshan earthquake in 1976, confidence in forecasting has been declining, while seismic fortification has gained more attention. The Wenchuan MW7.9 earthquake on May 12, 2008 once again revealed the dim reality of earthquake prediction. Despite the large number of precursor monitoring stations and well-established series of conciliation systems, no obvious anomalies sufficient to generate forecasts were identified prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. On the contrary, the Wenchuan earthquake irrefutably demonstrates the tremendous importance of seismic fortification. Unlike the no-seismic fortification in Tangshan earthquake in 1976, there was a requirement for seismic fortification in Wenchuan earthquake zone in 2008, while fortified buildings suffered much less losses than non-fortified buildings. However, the implementation of seismic code lags far behind promulgation. If the implementation of the code for seismic design is more stringent and the construction site is more sensible, many of the deaths caused by the earthquake could have been avoided and the loss of property should also be greatly reduced. The most important lesson to be learned from the earthquake prediction work in China is that it is unrealistic to rely on the prediction to prevent earthquake disaster regardless of the foreground of the earthquake prediction and seismic fortification based on the scientific analysis of seismic hazard It is an effective way to reduce the disaster.