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引入农业气象干旱指标建立发育期尺度的玉米水分适宜度模型,利用1981—2010年辽宁52个气象站玉米发育期及常规气象数据,采用气候趋势分析和突变分析方法对玉米水分适宜度时空演变特征及农业干旱进行分析和评估.结果表明:不同发育期水分适宜度变化趋势不同,出苗至七叶期(Ⅱ)、拔节至抽雄期(Ⅳ)及乳熟至成熟期(Ⅵ)分别在1994、1996和1999年发生气候突变,在30年内播种至出苗期(Ⅰ)、七叶至拔节期(Ⅲ)、Ⅳ和抽雄至乳熟期(Ⅴ)水分适宜度呈不显著增大趋势,Ⅱ和Ⅵ期呈减小趋势,其中Ⅵ期达到显著水平.水分适宜度气候趋势存在空间差异,不同等级干旱在各发育期发生的概率不同,Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅵ期辽宁仅部分地区水分适宜度增大或减小趋势显著,这4个时期辽西北和辽南地区是水分适宜度高变异性区域,也是中、重度干旱的高发地区,而Ⅳ和Ⅴ期干旱发生频率较低,仅在相应地区发生轻、中度干旱.区域平均的水分适宜度能够对区域尺度上的农业干旱进行很好的评价.
The drought index of agricultural meteorology was used to establish the model of water adaptability of maize at the developmental stage. Based on the maize growth stages and conventional meteorological data of 52 weather stations in Liaoning during 1981-2010, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of maize water use suitability were analyzed by climatic trend analysis and mutation analysis And the agricultural drought were analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that: the trend of water use suitability varied in different developmental stages, and the trend of emergence and up to the seven-leaf stage (Ⅱ), jointing to tasseling (Ⅳ) and milk ripening to maturity (Ⅵ) In 1996 and 1999, there was a sudden change in climate, and the suitability of water availability did not increase significantly during seeding (I), seeding stage to jointing stage (Ⅲ), and from tasseling to milking stage (Ⅴ) within 30 years. Ⅱ and Stage VI showed a decreasing trend, of which stage VI reached a significant level.Water suitability climate trends exist spatial differences, different levels of drought in different developmental stages of the probability of different, Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ and Ⅵ part of Liaoning water adaptability The trend of increase or decrease was significant. In the four periods, the regions of northwestern Liaoning and southern Liaoning are high-variability regions of water suitability and high incidence of moderate-severe drought. However, the frequency of drought in stages Ⅳ and Ⅴ is higher , Occurs only in the corresponding region of mild to moderate drought. The average water fitness area can be a good evaluation of agricultural drought on the regional scale.