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本文利用1999-2006年江苏省分行业面板数据,考察了FD I技术溢出对江苏制造业产出增长的影响。研究结果表明:在静态和动态面板数据模型中,水平溢出效应由负转正,由不显著到显著,说明FD I具有“挤出效应”的说法并不成立。FD I前向关联溢出效应并不显著,后向关联溢出为正且显著,后向关联溢出是比水平溢出更重要的溢出途径。资本和劳动都是促进江苏产出增长的重要因素,资本对产出增长的作用更多的体现在当年引致的投资需求上。
In this paper, we use the panel data of Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2006 to examine the impact of FDI technology spillover on the output growth of Jiangsu’s manufacturing industry. The results show that: in the static and dynamic panel data model, the horizontal spillover effect from negative to positive, from not significant to significant, that FD I has “crowding out effect ” argument does not hold. FD I front linkage spillover effect is not significant, backward linkage is positive and significant spillover, backward linkage spillover is more important than horizontal spillover overflow. Both capital and labor are important factors in boosting output growth in Jiangsu. The role of capital in increasing output is reflected more in the demand for investment that year.