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旅游流时间特征研究是旅游地规划、市场营销和景区容量管理的基础。本文以港澳和台湾入境旅游流为研究对象,应用快速样本聚类法、基尼系数、季节变动指数和年际变动指数对1997年-2010年间港澳和台湾入境旅游流的季节性变化和年际变化进行了定量分析和研究,得出以下结论:①港澳和台湾入境旅游流的季节性均不强,其中台湾入境旅游流季节性相对较强。港澳和台湾入境旅游流季节分布模式均呈“四峰”型,但是港澳入境旅游流季节分布曲线呈现明显的“双W”型,台湾入境旅游流季节分布曲线则呈现明显的“双M”型;②港澳和台湾入境旅游市场仍是我国入境旅游市场的主体,但是其占中国入境旅游市场的份额呈下降趋势;③中国入境旅游业的发展受国际旅游环境和国内旅游环境的双重影响,其中外国人入境旅游市场受国际危机事件的影响更显著,港澳和台湾入境旅游市场受中国大陆危机事件的影响更显著;④港澳台入境旅游流季节性变化受自然因素影响不大,主要受制度因素影响。制度因素中的公共假期因素是影响港澳和台湾入境旅游流年内季节变化的主要因素。
The study on time characteristics of tourist flow is the basis of tourism planning, marketing and scenic area capacity management. Based on the inbound tourism flows of Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan, the paper uses the fast sample clustering method, the Gini coefficient, seasonal change index and interannual change index to study the seasonal and interannual variability of inbound tourist flows between Hong Kong, Conducted quantitative analysis and research, and reached the following conclusions: ① Inbound tourism flows in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not very seasonally seasonally, and Taiwan’s inbound tourist flow is relatively seasonal. The seasonal distribution patterns of inbound tourist flow in Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan showed “Four Peaks” type, but the seasonal distribution curve of inbound tourist flow in Hong Kong and Maupeak showed obvious “double W” type, while the seasonal distribution curve of Taiwan Inbound Tourist Flow showed obvious “2” M "type; 2) Inbound tourism market in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is still the main body of China’s inbound tourism market, but its share of China’s inbound tourism market is on the decline; 3) Inbound tourism development in China is affected by the international tourism environment and domestic tourism The impact of the international crisis on the tourist market of foreigners is more significant. The entry tourism market in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is more significantly affected by the crisis in mainland China. (4) The seasonal changes of inbound tourist flow in Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan are affected by natural factors Large, mainly affected by institutional factors. Institutional factors in the public holiday factor is the main factor affecting the seasonal changes in the inbound tourist flows in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.