“黑天鹅效应”生活在17世纪欧洲的人们都相信一件事——所有的天鹅都是白色的。因为当时所能见到的天鹅的确都是白色的,所以根据经验主义,那简直就是一个真理,至少可以算是一个公理吧。那么,见到黑色天鹅的几率是多少呢?根本无法计算,也没有人想过要计算。直到1697年,英国探险家约翰·拉森在澳大利亚西部发现了黑天鹅,人们才知道以前的结论是片面的——并非所有的天鹅 “Black Swan Effect ” People living in Europe in the 17th century believe one thing - all the swans are white. Because at that time the swan that I was able to see was indeed white, empiricism was a truth, at least as an axiom. So, what is the chance of seeing a black swan? It can not be calculated, and nobody ever thought about calculating it. It was not until 1697 that British explorer John Larson discovered black swans in western Australia that people only knew that the previous conclusions were one-sided - not all swans