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寻找煤矿事故死亡人数的规律并有效的预测死亡人数,对制定有效的措施预防安全事故,减少人员伤亡具有重要意义。以2008-2013年的煤矿事故死亡人数数据为基础,利用无偏灰色马尔科夫模型预测2014年煤矿事故死亡人数,预测结果与实际数据的相对误差仅1.92%。最后利用该模型预测2015年煤矿事故死亡人数,最终预测结果为663人,这个结果符合我国煤矿近几年来的发展趋势。
Looking for the law of the death toll in coal mine accidents and effectively predicting the death toll are of great significance in formulating effective measures to prevent accidents and reduce the number of casualties. Based on the data of coal mine accidents in 2008-2013, the unbiased gray Markov model was used to predict the number of coal mine accidents in 2014. The relative error between prediction results and actual data was only 1.92%. Finally, the model was used to predict the number of coal mine accidents in 2015, with a final prediction of 663 people. This result is in line with the development trend of China’s coal mines in recent years.