论文部分内容阅读
基于时间序列分析理论,将猪肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋、蔬菜和水果等5类鲜活农产品市场价格的变化分解为趋势变动、周期波动(循环变动)、季节波动和随机波动等4个部分。运用X12法和H-P滤波法对5类鲜活农产品市场价格波动规律进行分析,研究结果表明:在价格波动周期长度方面,猪肉呈缩小趋势,鸡肉、鸡蛋和蔬菜呈扩大趋势,水果趋于稳定;在价格波动周期对称性方面,猪肉、鸡肉和鸡蛋呈下跌周期大于上涨周期趋势,蔬菜、水果呈上涨周期大于下跌周期趋势;在价格波动的贡献率方面,猪肉、鸡肉和鸡蛋价格的周期性波动大于季节性波动,蔬菜和水果价格的季节性波动大于周期性波动,果蔬价格受随机波动的影响程度总体大于畜产品。
Based on the theory of time series analysis, the changes of market prices of five kinds of fresh agricultural products such as pork, chicken, egg, vegetable and fruit are divided into four parts: trend change, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal fluctuation and stochastic fluctuation. The results showed that: pork showed a decreasing trend in the period of price fluctuation, chicken, egg and vegetable tended to expand, and the fruit tended to be stable. In terms of the cyclical symmetry of price volatility, the downward trend of pork, chicken and egg is greater than the upward trend and the upward cycle of vegetables and fruits is greater than the downward trend. The cyclical fluctuations in the prices of pork, chicken and egg in terms of the contribution rate of price volatility Seasonal fluctuation is more than seasonal fluctuations. Seasonal fluctuations in prices of vegetables and fruits are more than cyclical fluctuations. Prices of fruits and vegetables are generally more affected by random fluctuations than livestock products.