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总结2009—2015年国内与国际牛肉月度价格变动的基本规律,应用VAR模型对国内与国际2个空间市场牛肉价格长、短期整合情况和因果关系等进行实证分析,揭示了国内外牛肉价格长期和短期均整合;国际牛肉价格是国内牛肉价格的格兰杰原因,反之,不成立;国际牛肉价格对国内牛肉价格的影响较大且影响作用时滞4个月,但是国内牛肉价格对国际牛肉价格的影响并不明显。基于上述结论,政府应综合考虑国内和国际牛肉市场的形势,出台相关政策以稳定国内牛肉价格,保障国内肉牛产业安全,实现持续健康发展。
Summarize the basic rules of monthly price changes of domestic and international beef from 2009 to 2015, using VAR model to analyze the long and short-term integration and causal relationship of beef prices in domestic and international markets, revealing the long-term and short- Short-term integration; international beef prices Granger reason is the domestic beef prices, on the contrary, not established; international beef prices on domestic beef prices and the impact of large delay of 4 months, but the domestic beef prices on international beef prices The impact is not obvious. Based on the above conclusions, the government should take into account the domestic and international beef market situation, the introduction of relevant policies to stabilize the domestic beef prices, to ensure the safety of domestic beef cattle industry, to achieve sustained and healthy development.