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基于结构向量自回归模型对房价波动影响我国居民消费的传导渠道及其作用效果进行了模拟研究。结果发现,房价波动通过信贷渠道对我国居民消费的影响最大,但这种渠道传导的是负向抑制影响,即该渠道导致房价波动对居民消费的正向影响减少17.8%,负向影响增加10.2%;而房价波动通过收入渠道、储蓄渠道对居民消费均传导了正向促进影响,且房价对居民消费的正向促进影响中收入渠道传导了10.7%、储蓄渠道仅传导了3.57%。
Based on the structural vector autoregressive model, the transmission channel and its effects on housing consumption in our country are simulated. The result shows that the fluctuation of house price has the greatest impact on the consumption of residents in our country through the credit channel. However, this channel leads to the negative effect of negative effect, ie, the positive impact of the channel fluctuation on resident consumption is reduced by 17.8% and the negative impact is increased by 10.2% %. However, the fluctuation of housing prices has a positive impact on residents’ consumption through income channels and savings channels. Housing prices have contributed 10.7% of income channels to household consumption and only 3.57% of savings channels.