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目的应用地理信息系统(GIS)技术分析中国大陆高致病性禽流感的空间分布特征和探讨疫情发生的相关环境因素。方法收集中国2004年1、2月份高致病性禽流感疫情资料建立数据库,在ArcGIS 8.3软件中与省级、县级行政区划数字地图建立关联,对禽流感疫情的分布进行空间聚类分析、空间统计分析和追踪分析;收集中国气象资料、植被遥感影像及候鸟迁移数据,分析禽流感疫情发生的相关环境因素。结果空间聚类分析显示中国大陆2004年1、2月份禽流感高发区聚集在圆心为东经113.261°、北纬23.119°、半径为1090.52 km的区域内(RR=2.646,P=0.001);空间统计分析显示中国大陆禽流感疫情大都发生在各省(自治区、直辖市)的省会城市及周边地区,并主要分布于一级河流、湖泊周边及沿海区域;环境因素分析显示禽流感疫情发生的当天气温较低、相对湿度和平均气压较高,疫区与中国东、中部候鸟迁徙区的联系密切,疫区1—2月份平均归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)为0 36±0.11。结论中国大陆高致病性禽流感的空间分布为非随机分布,且具有明显的地域聚集性。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of HPAI in mainland China and to explore the relevant environmental factors for the occurrence of the outbreak by using the technology of geographic information system (GIS). Methods The database of epidemic situation of HPAI in January and February 2004 in China was collected and correlated with the digital maps of provincial and county administrative divisions in ArcGIS 8.3 software. Spatial cluster analysis was conducted on the distribution of the outbreak of avian influenza. Spatial statistical analysis and follow-up analysis; Collecting China’s meteorological data, vegetation remote sensing images and migratory migratory data to analyze the environmental factors related to the outbreak of bird flu. Results of spatial clustering analysis showed that in January and February 2004, the incidence of avian influenza in mainland China was concentrated in a region centered at 113.261 ° East longitude and 23.119 ° North latitude and a radius of 1090.52 km (RR = 2.646, P = 0.001). Spatial statistical analysis Most of the outbreaks of bird flu occurred in mainland China occurred in the capital cities and surrounding areas of all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government), and were mainly distributed in the first class rivers and lakes and the coastal areas. Environmental factor analysis showed that the temperature of the bird flu on the day of the outbreak was low, The relative humidity and average pressure were relatively high. The epidemic area was closely linked with migratory areas in eastern and central China. The average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in January and February in affected areas was 0 36 ± 0.11. Conclusions The spatial distribution of HPAI in mainland China is nonrandomly distributed and has obvious geographical clustering.