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通过构建非完全竞争的CGE模型,模拟了在不同情景下国际天然气价格波动对居民生活及产业结构的影响。结果表明:当政府不对天然气进行价格管制时,若国际天然气价格上涨将降低居民福利水平,提高消费者物价(CPI)指数,增加各产业的生产成本,造成输入性通货膨胀,对不同行业的产出产生差异化影响,但是能够改善我国产业结构,促进产业结构合理化和高级化,若国际天然气价格下降则基本起到相反的作用效果;当政府对天然气价格形成进行干预管制时,天然气的国际价格波动对于产业结构和居民生活产生的影响相对较小,表明政府对天然气价格管制的措施能够稳定物价水平,降低国际天然气价格波动对中国经济的影响,但是对产业结构的高级化影响则与不存在政府管制的情景相反。
By constructing imperfect competition CGE model, this paper simulates the impact of international natural gas price fluctuations on residential life and industrial structure under different scenarios. The results show that when the government does not control the price of natural gas, if the rise of international natural gas price will lower the residents’ welfare level, raise the consumer price index (CPI), increase the production cost of various industries and cause input inflation, However, it can improve the industrial structure in our country and promote the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure. If the international natural gas price declines, it will basically play the opposite effect. When the government intervenes and regulates the price formation of natural gas, the international price of natural gas The relatively small impact of fluctuations on industrial structure and residential life shows that government measures to control natural gas prices can stabilize prices and reduce the impact of international natural gas price fluctuations on the Chinese economy. However, the effects of the advanced industrial structure on the other hand do not exist The situation is the opposite of government control.