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初,史学界认为袁世凯掌权的主要原因是由于他掌握了强大的军事力量;解放后,又认为孙中山之所以失位,主要是没有能够明确提出反帝反封建的纲领;20世纪80年代以后,多数史学家又认为袁世凯取代孙中山,是当时大势所趋,历史的必然。本文认为,史学前辈的观点,要么只能是重要原因而非主要原因;要么太笼统。袁世凯所以坐大,其主要原因在于各种力量都看中袁世凯而遗弃孙中山所致。
In early history, the main reason why historians believe Yuan Shih-kai took power was because he possessed powerful military forces. After the liberation, he also thought that Sun Yat-sen fell out of position mainly because it failed to clearly put forward the anti-imperialist and anti-feudal program. Since the 1980s, Most historians also think that Yuan Shikai to replace Sun Yat-sen, was the general trend of the times, the inevitable history. This paper argues that the viewpoints of historians can only be an important reason rather than a major one, or too general. Yuan Shikai therefore sit big, the main reason is that all forces are fancy Yuan Shikai and Sun Yat-sen abandoned.