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利用基于生态位模型的GARP方法,预测山东苹果主产区为苹果蠹蛾适生区;利用有害生物危险性评价指标体系评判其对山东的潜在风险评估值R=2.36。综合分析苹果蠹蛾国内外分布、寄主范围及为害特点、经济重要性、传入定殖及扩散可能性、检疫管理难度等,得出其属于高度危险的有害生物。据此提出防止其传入的风险管理措施。
Based on the GARP method based on the niche model, the main apple producing area in Shandong Province was predicted to be the suitable region for codling moth. The potential risk assessment value of Shandong was estimated to be R = 2.36 by using the pest risk assessment index system. A comprehensive analysis of the distribution of codling moth at home and abroad, the host range and damage characteristics, economic importance, the possibility of colonization and spread into the quarantine management difficulty, concluded that it belongs to a highly hazardous pest. Accordingly, put forward to prevent the introduction of risk management measures.