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本文在随机一般均衡非对称两国模型中探讨了在外生冲击下,资本流动对欠发达国家汇率波动的影响。本文发现:在浮动汇率制度、资本账户开放、投资者的资产调整存在时滞等假设下,发迭国家产出波动冲击所引发的投资者资产调整可引起欠发达国家货币的升值。但如发达国家产出波动冲击也引起了欠发达国家产出波动幅度的提高,则欠发达国家货币是否升值取决于欠发达国家产出波动增大的幅度是否低于发达国家。此外,发达国家居民越重视财富和社会地位,越有可能加深欠发达国家的汇率波动幅度。
This paper explores the impact of capital flows on exchange rate fluctuations in less developed countries under exogenous shocks in a stochastic general equilibrium asymmetric two-country model. This paper finds that under the assumption of floating exchange rate system, opening of capital account and delay of asset adjustment of investors, the adjustment of investor assets caused by the impact of the country’s output fluctuation can cause the currency appreciation of the less developed countries. However, if the output shocks in developed countries also cause the output volatility of less developed countries to increase, whether the currency appreciation in less developed countries depends on whether the increase in the output of less developed countries is less than that of developed countries. In addition, the more emphasis residents have on wealth and social status in developed countries, the more likely they are to deepen exchange rate fluctuations in less-developed countries.