论文部分内容阅读
利用英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心GCM模型HADCM2预测的气温变化背景 ,分别提取青藏公路沿线地区在 2 0 0 9年、2 0 49年和 2 0 99年的气温参数 ,考虑年平均气温和年平均地温的关系及年平均地温与海拔、纬度的关系模型、多年冻土下界分布模型和地温带分带 ,建立青藏公路沿线多年冻土下界分布的响应模型和多年冻土地温带的响应模型 .研究结果表明 ,2 0 0 9年青藏公路沿线的冻土变化较小 ,多年冻土极稳定带、稳定带和基本稳定带仅发生微弱的变化 ,基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化较大 ,多年冻土逐渐退化 ;2 0 49年青藏公路沿线多年冻土各地温带变化较大 ,但仍以基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化最大 ,多年冻土发生较大范围的退化 ;2 0 99年后青藏公路沿线冻土发生了很大的变化 ,多年冻土发生大面积的退化 ,融区面积逐渐增大 ,多年冻土地温带也发生了较大的变化 ,其中多年冻土上带仅保留了稳定带 ,极稳定带全部消失 ,稳定带和基本稳定带全部转化为不稳定带
Based on the background of the temperature change predicted by GCM model HADCM2 in England’s Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, the temperature parameters of the areas along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in 2009, 2090 and 2090 are respectively taken into account. Taking into account the annual average temperature and the annual average The relationship between geotemperature and the relationship between annual mean ground temperature and altitude and latitude, the model of permafrost distribution and the zonation of geotemperature zone, the model of response to the lower bound of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and the response model of the geotemperature of permafrost. The results show that the permafrost changes very little along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in2009, and the permafrost zone is very stable. The stability zone and the basic stability zone change only weakly, and the basic stable transitional and unstable zones change greatly. The soil gradually degenerated; in 2049, the temperate zone of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway changed a lot, but the change remained stable with the basic stable transitional zone and the unstable zone, and the permafrost underwent a wide range of degeneration. After 2099, The permafrost along the highway has undergone great changes, large areas of permafrost degenerated, the area of the melting zone gradually increased, and the temperate zone of the permafrost also changed greatly In the permafrost zone, only the stability zone remained, and the extreme stability zone disappeared. The stability zone and the basic stability zone were all transformed into unstable zones