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以安徽省道路交通安全状况为研究对象,探讨分析安徽省道路交通事故致因要素及未来发展趋势.首先利用灰色关联度法分析道路交通事故数与相关致因要素之间的关联度,得出人口因素是主导因素,其次为环境因素,包括社会经济环境和道路环境.在此基础上,运用灰色GM(1,1)及其残差改进模型,对事故起数及其主导因素进行预测研究,结果证明灰色预测可以很好地预测人口发展趋势,但对事故起数这样波动较大的数据更适宜残差修正模型.
Taking the road traffic safety in Anhui Province as the research object, this paper analyzes and analyzes the causal factors and future development trends of road traffic accidents in Anhui Province.Firstly, the gray relational degree method is used to analyze the correlation between the number of road traffic accidents and related causal factors, Population factor is the dominant factor, followed by the environmental factors, including the social and economic environment and the road environment.On the basis of this, using gray GM (1,1) and its residual improvement model to predict the number of accidents and their dominant factors The results show that gray prediction can predict the population trend well, but the more volatile data such as the number of accidents are more suitable for the residual error correction model.