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为有效预警和防控突颊侧琵甲Prosodes(Lioprosodes)dilaticollis Motschulsky发生,基于该物种分布数据、1950―2000年环境下生物气候数据和典型受害区土壤因子数据、气象数据等,采用MaxEnt模型对其在新疆的潜在地理分布及其主要影响因子进行预测和分析验证。结果表明:受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under the ROC curve,AUC)都大于0.990,预测结果可靠。突颊侧琵甲的潜在分布区位于新疆天山一带,高、中度适生区分布在伊犁河谷草原和昌吉州玛纳斯县、呼图壁县草原及塔城地区沙湾县等地;刀切法得出降水量是影响其潜在地理分布的主要因素,特别是5、6、11、12月降水量的影响最大。该虫典型受害区的降水数据验证了分布概率响应曲线的准确性;土壤湿度在15%~30%范围时,30 cm处土壤湿度与虫口密度呈极显著弱正相关。表明降水作为影响草原土壤湿度、土壤含氧量的主要和直接因素,对不同生长期突颊侧琵甲生存起到重要作用。
In order to effectively prevent and control occurrence of Prosodes (Lioprosodes) dilaticollis Motschulsky, based on the species distribution data, biological climate data from 1950 to 2000, soil factor data and meteorological data of typical damaged areas, MaxEnt model was used Its potential geographical distribution in Xinjiang and its main influence factors are predicted and analyzed and verified. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was greater than 0.990, and the predictive result was reliable. The potential distribution of buccal buccal side is located in the Tianshan area of Xinjiang, high and moderately suitable area located in the Ili Valley grassland and Changji Manas County, Hutubi County grassland and Tacheng area Shawan County and other places; knife It is the main factor that influences the potential geography distribution that the precipitation is deduced, especially the influence of the precipitation in May, June, November and December. The precipitation data of the typical damaged area of the pest proved the accuracy of the distribution probability response curve. When the soil moisture was in the range of 15% ~ 30%, the soil moisture at 30 cm was significantly and weakly positively correlated with the population density. It shows that precipitation is the main and direct factor affecting soil moisture and soil oxygen content in grassland and plays an important role in the survival of buccal buccal bursts at different growth stages.