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国债发行是我国政府弥补财政收支差额、缓解财政压力和实施宏观经济调控的重要工具。国债发行规模是否适度既直接影响政府宏观调控力度和效果,也关系到国民经济健康有序运行及社会安定、其研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文通过理论分析和实证分析,在研究影响国债规模的主要影响因素的基础上,建立有关计量经济模型,运用1981~2005年的样本数据,利用EViews 7.0软件进行分析。最后对我国国债规模的发展提出建议。
The issuance of government bonds is an important tool for our government to make up for the difference between fiscal revenues and expenditures, ease financial pressure and implement macroeconomic regulation and control. Whether the scale of issuance of government bonds is moderate or not has a direct impact on the strength and effectiveness of the government’s macroeconomic regulation and control as well as the healthy and orderly operation of the national economy and social stability. Its research has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the main influencing factors of the national debt scale, establishes the econometric model, and uses the sample data from 1981 to 2005 and the analysis using EViews 7.0 software. Finally, the development of the scale of China’s national debt recommendations.