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新产品市场需求信息的缺失以及供应链初构建时的不稳定性导致了零售商退出的高风险,而退出必然给供应链各成员带来巨大的损失,因此供应链需要及时制定应对策略.文章以存在零售商退出风险的新产品供应链为研究对象,运用Scarf在1958年提出的部分信息下的鲁棒决策方法,分析了二级供应链双方的博弈过程,并求得了最优解存在的条件与其表达式.通过理论推演与仿真分析发现:零售商退出风险对供应商和零售商的最优决策和利润造成冲击,同时发现,受冲击的程度与退出标准密切相关,建议零售商在可承受的因低销量带来的利润损失之内,应适当降低退出标准.
The absence of market demand for new products and instability in the initial construction of the supply chain lead to the high risk of retailers withdrawing. However, the exit will inevitably bring huge losses to the members of the supply chain. Therefore, the supply chain needs to formulate timely response strategies. Taking the new product supply chain with retailer exit risk as the research object, this paper analyzes the game process of the two-level supply chain using the robust decision-making method proposed by Scarf in 1958 under partial information, and obtains the optimal solution Condition and its expression.According to the theoretical deduction and simulation analysis, we find that retailer exit risk impact on the optimal decision-making and profit of suppliers and retailers, at the same time, it is found that the level of impact is closely related to exit standard, To bear the loss of profits due to low sales, the exit criteria should be appropriately reduced.