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目的对2004-2014年济宁地区11个县市区的气象资料以及肾综合征出血热发病资料进行分析,探讨气象因素对肾综合征出血热发病的影响。方法分析2004-2014年济宁地区肾综合征出血热病例共计895例,同时收集同期的气象数据,应用Cochran-Armitage趋势检验分析肾综合征出血热发病人数与气象因素的变化趋势,应用Spearman等级相关法分析肾综合征出血热传播与气象因素的相关性。结果 2004-2014年济宁地区肾综合征出血热发病地域性明显,主要集中在西南和东北部;肾综合征出血热在济宁地区发病仍然呈现与以往相似的发病季节特点,大部分县区年发病人数与气象因素之间的无相关性,而月发病人数与气象因素间的相关性较大。肾综合征出血热月发病人数在济宁地区与气温、降水和湿度总体均呈负相关。结论气象因素对济宁地区肾综合征出血热发病存在明显影响,通过对气象因素的各种预报,对本地区肾综合征出血热的流行趋势进行预测并采取针对性防控措施,可减少肾综合征出血热的发病与流行。
Objective To analyze the meteorological data and the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in 11 counties in Jining from 2004 to 2014 and explore the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Methods A total of 895 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were collected from Jining in 2004-2014. At the same time, the meteorological data of the same period were collected. The trends of the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and the changes of meteorological factors were analyzed by Cochran-Armitage trend test. Spearman rank correlation Analysis of the correlation between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and meteorological factors. Results The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was significant in Jining in 2004-2014, mainly in the southwest and northeast areas. The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining still showed seasonal characteristics similar to the previous one, There is no correlation between the number of people and meteorological factors, but the correlation between the number of monthly incidence and meteorological factors is relatively large. The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining was negatively correlated with temperature, precipitation and humidity in general. Conclusions The meteorological factors have a significant impact on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jining. By forecasting the prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the region and predicting the epidemic trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome through various forecasting of meteorological factors, we can reduce the incidence of renal syndrome The incidence and prevalence of hemorrhagic fever.