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[目的]了解无锡市大气污染基本特征,重点探讨大气主要污染物PM_(2.5)对儿童内科门诊量的影响。[方法]收集2014—2015年无锡市逐日气象资料、大气污染物资料以及儿童专科医院内科门诊量数据。采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加模型(GAM),控制长期趋势及气象条件等混杂因素,分析PM_(2.5)浓度和儿童内科门诊量的关系及滞后效应。[结果]2014—2015年无锡市PM_(2.5)日平均质量浓度(后称“浓度”)年均值为61.4μg/m3;Spearman等级相关分析表明,儿童内科日门诊量与二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳、PM10和PM_(2.5)等污染物浓度呈正相关(P<0.01)。时间序列分析结果提示,PM_(2.5)对儿童内科门诊量的影响存在滞后及累积效应,超额危险度(ER)估计值在单日滞后第4天及累积滞后第10天,达到观察期内较高值,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m~3,儿童内科门诊量分别增加0.47%(95%可信区间:0.35%~0.59%)和1.45%(95%可信区间:1.15%~1.75%)。[结论]无锡市大气主要污染物PM_(2.5)浓度升高可导致儿童内科门诊量增加,应采取措施保护易感人群。
[Objective] To understand the basic characteristics of air pollution in Wuxi City and focus on the impact of PM_ (2.5), the major air pollutant, on outpatient volume of pediatric medicine. [Method] The daily meteorological data, air pollutants information and internal medicine outpatient data of Wuxi Special Hospital from 2014 to 2015 were collected. The generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution was used to control the long-term trend and meteorological conditions and other confounders. The relationship between the concentration of PM 2.5 and outpatient volume of children and the lag effect were analyzed. [Results] The average annual PM_ (2.5) mass concentration (hereinafter “concentration”) in Wuxi was 61.4 μg / m 3 from 2014 to 2015. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that the daily outpatient amount of pediatric internal medicine was significantly correlated with SO 2, Nitrogen, carbon monoxide, PM10 and PM 2.5 concentrations were positively correlated (P <0.01). The results of time series analysis indicated that there was lag and cumulative effect of PM 2.5 on the outpatient volume of pediatric medicine. The estimation of excess risk (ER) was on day 4 of single-day lag and on the 10th day of accumulated lag, (95% confidence interval: 0.35% -0.59%) and 1.45% (95% confidence interval: 1.15% confidence interval: 1.15%) when the level of PM 2.5 was increased by 10 μg / ~ 1.75%). [Conclusion] The increase of the concentration of PM 2.5 in the air of Wuxi City can lead to the increase of outpatient volume of internal medicine in children and measures should be taken to protect the susceptible population.