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1985年日本广场协议让美元相对日元、德国马克等货币实现有序贬值,此举解决了所谓美元币值高估和美国经常项目失衡现象,但美日贸易不平衡并没有得到根本解决,随后几年日本却出现了严重的泡沫经济。历史教训让不少人对近年来美国再次压迫人民币升值心存疑虑。本文基于对巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应理论的认同,在人民币可以升值的基础上,研究汇率和GDP的影响关系,针对我国2005年汇改前后的宏观经济状况的对比,认为只要采取适当对策,是可以防止类似日本经济长期增速缓慢的状况在我国重演。
The 1985 Japan Plaza Agreement made the dollar an orderly devaluation against the yen and the deutsche mark and other currencies. This solved the so-called overvaluation of the U.S. dollar and the current account imbalance in the United States. However, the trade imbalance between the United States and Japan has not been fundamentally solved. In Japan, there was a serious bubble economy. Historical lessons have left many people in doubt about the re-oppression of the renminbi by the United States in recent years. Based on the recognition of Balassa-Samuelson effect theory, this paper studies the relationship between exchange rate and GDP based on the appreciation of the renminbi. In comparison with the macroeconomic situation in China before and after the reform in 2005, we think that as long as appropriate measures are taken , Is to prevent similar long-term slow growth in Japan’s economy in our country a repeat.