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当今社会仍处于后危机时代,经济发展仍处于转型过程中,认清虚拟经济与实体经济之间的关系,对国家进一步制定有关经济政策可以提供参考方向。本文基于我国2005年-2015年国家统计局经济数据,运用主成分分析、协整、向量误差修正(VECM)模型等方法对实体经济与虚拟经济两者之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明两者之间存在长期协整关系,短期有一定的互相抑制冲击影响。
Today’s society is still in a post-crisis era. Economic development is still in the process of transformation. Understanding the relationship between the fictitious economy and the real economy can provide a reference for the further formulation of relevant economic policies by the country. Based on the economic data of National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2005 to 2015, this paper makes empirical analysis of the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy by using the methods of principal component analysis, cointegration and vector error correction (VECM). The results show that the two There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the short-term have a certain impact on each other to suppress the impact.