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在引入企业项目投资特征的基础上,运用泊松分布分析方法阐释企业突破性技术创新的演变发展过程,进一步结合文献和决策实践,构建企业突破性技术创新的期权博弈模型。旨在分析项目收益与投入成本受企业突破性技术创新影响产生的正向、负向跳跃及不确定三种情形,分别得出突破性技术创新项目的投资机会价值、投资临界值。研究结果表明:企业突破性技术创新项目投资决策过程中,项目价值跳跃与其实现的频率变化是企业突破性技术创新投资决策的两个核心影响因素。通过突破性技术创新可以使企业获得可持续发展能力,破解发展过程中存在的瓶颈与障碍,进而步入良性发展轨道。
On the basis of introducing the characteristics of enterprise project investment, Poisson distribution analysis method is used to illustrate the evolution and development process of breakthrough technology innovation in enterprises, and further to combine the literature and decision-making practice to construct an option game model of breakthrough technology innovation. The purpose of this project is to analyze the positive and negative jumps and uncertainties caused by the project revenue and input costs being affected by the breakthrough technological innovation in enterprises, and respectively obtain the investment opportunity value and investment critical value of breakthrough technological innovation projects. The results show that in the process of investment decision-making of breakthrough technological innovation projects, the jump of project value and the frequency change of its realization are the two core influential factors in the decision-making of breakthrough technology innovation. Through breakthrough technological innovation, enterprises can gain the capability of sustainable development, crack the bottlenecks and obstacles in the development process, and then enter the track of sound development.