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根据 1951～ 1997年太平洋 SST资料 ,计算分析了东赤道太平洋区 SST和北太平洋 El-Ni o海温场的近 4 7年长期变化趋势 ,并运用距平累积曲线法、信噪比法和跃变参数法 ,分析给出二者变化过程中的转折年和跃变年。结果表明 ,这两者在开始时 ,虽有小段时期呈微小下降 ,但总的变化呈增暖趋势 ;其跃变年前者发生在 1980年 ,后者在 1977年 ;转折年都在 1957年附近和1990年。此外 ,从季平均海温的 EOF1场来看 ,只有秋季才是最典型的 El- Ni o场。
Based on the SST data of the Pacific Ocean from 1951 to 1997, long-term changes of the SST over the eastern equatorial Pacific and El-Ni o over the North Pacific during the past 47 years have been calculated and analyzed. And by using the cumulant curve method, Variable parameter method, the analysis gives the turning point and the transitional years in the changing process of the two. The results show that although both of them started to decline slightly in a short period of time, the total change showed a warming trend. The transition occurred in 1980 and the latter in 1977 and the turning around in 1957 And 1990. In addition, only the fall is the most typical El NiO field from the EOF1 field of the seasonally averaged SST.