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针对系统动态可靠性中的不确定性问题,将动态故障树分析方法与模糊理论相结合,提出了基于模糊Markov过程的复杂系统动态可靠性仿真评估方法。首先,结合模糊理论与故障树方法,对基于模糊故障树的复杂系统可靠性模型进行了描述;其次,对动态故障树模型与的Markov过程模型的转换方法进行了研究,构建了复杂系统模糊动态可靠性评估模型,给出了系统模糊可靠度Monte Carlo仿真方法,并针对模糊隶属度难以求解的问题,结合目标规划模型,设计了动态隶属度确定算法;最后,以某型内燃机为例,对方法的科学性和有效性进行了验证。
Aiming at the problem of uncertainty in the system dynamic reliability, the dynamic fault tree analysis method is combined with fuzzy theory, and the simulation and evaluation method of dynamic reliability of complex system based on fuzzy Markov process is proposed. First of all, based on the fuzzy theory and the fault tree method, the complex system reliability model based on the fuzzy fault tree is described. Secondly, the dynamic fault tree model and the Markov process model transformation method are studied, and the complex system fuzzy dynamic Reliability evaluation model, a Monte Carlo simulation method of system fuzzy reliability is given. In order to solve the problem that the fuzzy membership degree is difficult to solve, a dynamic membership degree determination algorithm is designed based on the target programming model. Finally, taking a certain type of internal combustion engine as an example, The scientific and validity of the method has been verified.