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铬是全球公认的战略物资。随着近年来中国铬资源需求的快速上升,铬资源进口量也大幅增加,铬资源供应安全面临多重威胁。本文首先分析了中国铬资源供需现状,然后通过总结发达国家经验,预测了中国铬资源未来的需求趋势;在此基础上,本文构建了包括国内供需因素、进口因素、国际市场因素在内的3个二级指标以及现有资源保障度、二次资源回收水平等9个三级指标的铬资源供应安全指标体系,并采用层次分析法评价了中国铬资源供应安全现状,计算了中国2000年、2005年、2010年、2013年、2020年和2030年的铬资源供应安全指数。结果表明:中国铬资源供应安全指数呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势,近年来铬资源供应不安全程度持续上升,目前已处于高位,未来随着2020年铬资源需求到达顶点、二次资源回收水平的上升以及进口来源渠道的拓展,中国铬资源安全形势将逐步好转。
Chromium is a globally accepted strategic material. With the rapid increase in demand for chromium resources in China in recent years, the import of chromium resources has also risen sharply and the supply of chromium resources is faced with multiple threats. This paper first analyzes the status quo of supply and demand of China’s chromium resources and then forecasts the future demand trend of China’s chromium resources by summing up the experience of developed countries. On this basis, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis of the status of supply and demand of chromium resources in China, including domestic supply and demand factors, import factors and international market factors. A two-level indicators and the current level of resource protection, secondary resource recovery level of nine three indicators of chromium resource supply safety index system, and using AHP to evaluate the status quo of China’s chromium resource supply security, calculated in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013, 2020 and 2030 chromium resource supply safety index. The results show that the safety index of chromium supply in China presents the trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In recent years, the unsustainable supply of chromium resources has been on the rise and is now at a high level. As the demand for chromium reaches its peak in 2020, the level of secondary resource recovery As well as the expansion of the sources of imports, the security situation of China’s chromium resources will gradually improve.