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网络零售生态系统中的种群有网络零售商、消费者、物流配送企业、网络零售服务外包企业等,它们通过捕食、竞争、互利和寄生等关系不断成长。采用系统动力学理论与方法,在对四种关系建立因果回路图的基础上,通过系统流图、方程及其仿真揭示中国网络零售业的网络购物消费者规模、人均网络购物消费额、物流配送能力、网络零售服务外包规模在2001-2030年间的发展情况。研究表明,中国网络零售业的快速发展受自身竞争优势及中国经济持续增长的双重影响;作为一个寄生产业,网络零售服务外包业规模不仅取决于网络零售业规模,也与服务外包产业自身发展高度相关。
The population in the online retail ecosystem includes online retailers, consumers, logistics and distribution companies, online retail service outsourcing enterprises and so on. They are growing by the relationship of predation, competition, mutual benefit and parasitism. Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, based on the establishment of the causal circuit diagram of the four kinds of relations, this paper reveals the scale of online shopping consumers, the consumption of online shopping per capita, logistics and distribution in China’s online retail industry through system flow diagram, equation and simulation Ability, the scale of online retail service outsourcing in 2001-2030. The research shows that the rapid development of China’s online retail industry is affected by its own competitive advantages and the sustained growth of China’s economy. As a parasitic industry, the scale of the online retail service outsourcing industry depends not only on the scale of the online retailing industry but also on the development of the service outsourcing industry itself Related.