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原油价格高涨对经济的影响原油价格持续高涨。纽约市场的WTI原油期货市场(近期货)7月中旬达到了每桶78美元的历史最高价。原油价格高涨的原因有以下几点:①以世界第二的石油消费国中国为首,全世界能源需求量有了增加;②除了沙特阿拉伯之外,产油国的生产能力没有多大余力;③中东地区及阿尔及利亚等的治安问题;④伊朗的核开发问题;⑤世界性过剩流动性的存在;等等。这些问题都难以在短期内改观,当前很难预测原油价格会大幅下降。原油价格上涨由于会造成收入从进口国转移到出口国,因此显然会对进口国经济产生负面影响。一般说来,往往会产生物价上涨和国际收支恶化,进而造成经济增长率的下降。但是,现实中进口国往往采取节省能源及使用替代能源等对策,也通过经济增长和生产率提高来消除原油价格高涨的影响。
The impact of high crude oil prices on the economy Crude oil prices continued to rise. The WTI crude oil futures market (near-term) in New York City hit a record high of 78 U.S. dollars a barrel in mid-July. The reasons for the soaring crude oil price include the following: (1) Energy demand in the world has risen led by China, the second largest oil consumer in the world; (2) there is not enough spare capacity in the oil-producing countries other than Saudi Arabia; and (3) the Middle East Regional and Algerian issues such as security; Iran’s nuclear development issues; the world’s excess liquidity exists; and so on. These problems are difficult to change in the short term, it is difficult to predict the current crude oil prices will drop significantly. Crude oil prices, apparently causing a negative impact on the economy of the importing countries, will result in the transfer of income from the importing countries to the exporting countries. In general, rising prices and deteriorating international payments often result in a decline in the rate of economic growth. In reality, however, importing countries often adopt measures to save energy and use alternative energy, and also eliminate the impact of soaring oil prices through economic growth and productivity growth.