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利用能源CO2排放系数和1985~2012年农业能源消费数据,分析了我国农业能源消耗及碳排放状况,然后使用Holt-Winter无季节性模型对我国“十三五”农业能源消耗、CO2排放趋势进行预测,并探讨农业减排路径,得到以下结论:1985~2012年,我国农业能源消费量波动中持续增长,CO2排放系数高的能源在农业耗能中所占的比例有所提高。CO2排放量总体保持上升趋势,单位农业产值CO2排放强度逐年下降,但未能实现碳绝对减排。“十三五”期间,我国农业能源利用效率逐步提升,单位农业产值CO2排放强度继续下降。但能源消费量、CO2排放量仍会持续上升,农业仍不能实现但趋向于碳绝对减排。为实现我国农业节能减排,应发挥农业碳汇功能,优化能源结构,提高农业能源利用效率。
Using the CO2 emission factor of energy and data of agricultural energy consumption from 1985 to 2012, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of agriculture in China were analyzed. Then the Holt-Winter non-seasonal model was used to analyze the energy consumption, CO2 emissions Trend and make a conclusion as follows: from 1985 to 2012, the agricultural energy consumption in our country fluctuated continuously, and the proportion of energy with high CO2 emission coefficient in agricultural energy consumption increased. As a whole, CO2 emissions have been on an upward trend, and the intensity of CO2 emissions per unit of agricultural output has been declining year by year, but it has not been able to achieve absolute carbon emission reductions. During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the efficiency of agricultural energy utilization in China gradually increased and the intensity of CO2 emission per unit of agricultural output continued to decline. However, energy consumption, CO2 emissions will continue to rise, agriculture still can not be achieved but tends to absolute carbon emission reduction. In order to realize energy-saving and emission reduction in agriculture in our country, we should give full play to agricultural carbon sequestration, optimize energy structure and improve agricultural energy efficiency.