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目的评估求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)乘积季节模型预测其他感染性腹泻流行的可行性。方法利用2005—2014年永嘉县其他感染性腹泻的发病率数据,采用ARIMA模型结合随机季节模型的方法,建立预测其他感染性腹泻流行的ARIMA乘积季节模型,同时用2015年的数据做模型预测效果验证。结果根据模型拟合效果,模型ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12的拟合效果为最优,其Ljung-Box检验值为7.796,BIC值为3.602,MAPE值为36.166%,表明模型拟合程度较好;该模型外推验证2015年发病率的预测效果较好,2015年各月发病率的实际值均落在该模型预测值95%可信区间内,且预测值与实际值间依时间变化的趋势也基本一致。结论ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型能较好地预测永嘉县其他感染性腹泻的流行趋势,对该病的预警具有一定的价值。
Objective To assess the feasibility of predicting the prevalence of other infectious diarrhea by the seasonal model of the sum of the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) products. Methods According to the data of incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County from 2005 to 2014, ARIMA model combined with random seasonal model was used to establish the ARIMA product seasonal model to predict the prevalence of other infectious diarrhea. At the same time, the model was used to predict the effect verification. Results According to the model fitting effect, the fitting effect of model ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 was the best. The Ljung-Box test value was 7.796, the BIC value was 3.602, and the MAPE value was 36.166 %, Which indicates that the model fitting degree is better. The model extrapolates the prediction effect of 2015 morbidity better, and the actual incidence of morbidity in each month in 2015 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the model predictive value, and the prediction The tendency that the value changes with the actual value by time is also basically the same. Conclusion The ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 model can better predict the epidemic trend of other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County, and it is of certain value for early warning of the disease.