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水资源是经济社会发展的基础性资源,对其承载力进行评估可作为区域可持续发展战略制定的依据。针对水资源的自然、经济社会和生态环境等多重属性,选取了6类26项描述指标,通过粗糙集理论(RS)对指标进行约简,筛选出了产水模数、水资源开发利用率、万元GDP用水量、人口密度、河流水质Ⅰ～Ⅲ比例和生物丰度指数6个评价指标。采用层次分析和熵权法对指标进行赋权,采用集对分析(SPA)构建评价样本与评价标准的联系度,建立了水资源承载力评价RS-SPA模型,利用该模型对我国31个省级行政区的水资源承载力进行了评价,结果表明我国北方地区基本属于不可承载或准不可承载,南方地区基本属于可承载或良好可承载。
Water resources are the basic resources for economic and social development. To evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources can serve as the basis for the formulation of regional sustainable development strategies. According to the natural, economic, social and ecological conditions of water resources, 26 descriptors of 6 categories were selected and the indexes of them were reduced by using rough set theory (RS). The modulus of water production, the development and utilization of water resources , Million yuan of GDP water consumption, population density, river water I ~ III ratio and biological abundance index 6 evaluation index. We use AHP and entropy method to weight the indicators, and set up the RS-SPA model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity by using set-pair analysis (SPA) to establish the connection between the evaluation samples and evaluation criteria. By using this model, The results showed that the northern part of our country belonged to the unbelievable or quasi-unobtainable, and the southern part basically belonged to the loadable or good loadable.