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对南疆铁路沿线地区的发展质量给予分析,构建监测与预警系统。从经济、社会、资源和环境四个子系统构建区域发展质量指标体系,通过熵值法来确定各指标的权重,借助物理学的耦合协调理论模型,得出了各个地区的耦合度、综合调和指数和耦合协调度。进而运用博克斯—詹金斯法构建时间序列,利用Eviews软件对耦合协调度序列进行处理,计算出预测年份的指标值。研究发现,各个地区的整体发展质量均呈现上升趋势,特别是库尔勒市整体发展质量增长趋势最为明显,且在预测年份的发展速度也比较快;喀什市和阿图什市在区域整体发展质量增长上也比较显著;吐鲁番市和阿克苏市则发展比较平稳。
The quality of development along the southern Xinjiang railway line is analyzed, and a monitoring and early warning system is constructed. From the four subsystems of economy, society, resources and environment, we construct the index system of regional development quality, and determine the weight of each index by entropy method. With the help of the theory of coupling and coordinating of physics, we can get the coupling degree, synthetically harmonic index And coupling degree of coordination. Then, the time sequence is constructed by using the Box-Jenkins method, and the coupled coordinate sequence is processed by using Eviews software to calculate the index value of the predicted year. The study found that the overall quality of development in all regions showed an upward trend. In particular, the trend of overall quality growth in Korla was the most obvious and the growth rate in the forecast years was relatively fast. The overall quality of development in the region of Kashgar and Atushi Is also more significant; Turpan City and Aksu City, the development is relatively stable.