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本文采用农业部门均衡模型——中国农业政策分析及预测模型(CAPSi M)深入分析了玉米关税配额(TRQ)对玉米及其他农业产业的影响。研究表明,玉米TRQ政策可以有效控制玉米进口并促进国内玉米生产,但是对其他作物和畜产品的产出和贸易造成一定负面影响。在未来玉米TRQ政策实施上,国家需要平衡口粮安全/饲料粮安全、进口饲料/进口畜产品、扩大玉米生产/农业生态安全等多重关系。
In this paper, the agricultural sector equilibrium model - China Agricultural Policy Analysis and Prediction Model (CAPSi M) is used to deeply analyze the impact of corn tariff quotas (TRQ) on corn and other agricultural industries. Research shows that the corn TRQ policy can effectively control maize imports and promote domestic corn production, but it has some negative impacts on the output and trade of other crops and livestock products. In the future implementation of TRQ corn policy, the state needs to balance the multiple benefits of food security / food security, import of feed / imported livestock products and expansion of corn production / agricultural ecological security.