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本文采用季节性时间序列模型,对我国保险业2002年1月至2008年11月的赔付支出数据进行分析,建立了Box-Jenkins季节模型,结果显示该模型具有较好的预测效果,可为我国保险业赔付的监管与决策提供参考。
In this paper, seasonal time series model is used to analyze the compensation and expenditure data of China’s insurance industry from January 2002 to November 2008, and a Box-Jenkins seasonal model is established. The result shows that the model has a good prediction effect and can be used in China Provide reference for supervision and decision of insurance payment.