飞机的退役是航空装备管理中的重要问题之一.为科学合理地确定飞机退役时限,针对部队飞机使用情况,以某型飞机为例,对飞机的剩余寿命进行详细分析,应用统计学方法,探讨了飞机退役时限和数量的变化规律,在此基础上建立了飞机补充数量预测模型.并结合空军装备发展的实际,对飞机使用过程中的更新换代问题进行了探讨. Decommissioning of aircraft is one of the important issues in the management of aviation equipment.In order to scientifically and reasonably determine the time limit for the decommissioning of an aircraft and a certain type of aircraft as an example, the remaining life of the aircraft is analyzed in detail according to the use of military aircraft. By applying statistical methods, The changing rules of aircraft decommissioning time and quantity are discussed, and on the basis of this, a model for forecasting the number of aircraft supplements is set up. In connection with the development of the Air Force’s equipment, the problem of renewal of the aircraft during its use is discussed.