全国人大常委会财经委员会委员、中国企业投资协会副会长、北京大学校务委员会名誉主席吴树青教授日前接受了本刊记者的独家专访，对当前中国总体经济形势，当前经济运营中存在的一些突出问题，中国经济的发展前景，以及社会主义市场经济的发展现状等社会各界普遍关注的问题进行了客观的分析点评。
　　
　　问：当前中国总体经济形势怎么样？
　　
　　答：当前中国总体经济形势应当说是比较好的，超过了预期。去年经济增长的态势是前高后低。今年，由于继续实行积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，努力扩大内需，积极发展对外经济，国民经济呈平稳发展态势。
　　一季度增长7.6％，二季度增长达到8%，上半年增长7。8%。上半年经济增长特点是：固定资产投资高速增长，外贸出口增速高于预期，工业生产增速逐步加快，经济运行质量逐步提高，国内市场销售稳定增长。
　　根据上半年的情况看，下半年的经济增长不会象去年那样呈逐季下降趋势，而可能比较平稳上升。虽然我们面临世界性经济不确定的因素和进入世贸组织初期必然面临的挑战大于机遇的情况，但只要做好工作，今年完成预期7%的目标，甚至超过预期目标的可能性是存在的。
　　
　　问：中国经济还存在什么需要特别关注的问题？
　　
　　答：但是也要清醒的看到，现在的这种增长基础并不稳固，通货紧缩的趋势加大和有效需求不足问题基本上还没有得到解决，经济增长的内在动力依然不足。当前经济运行中存在一些突出的问题，主要是：


　　1．有效需求不足仍然没有从根本上得到改变，物价水平持续低迷，通货紧缩压力依然存在。自2001年11月以来已有8个月物价水平下降或持平，生产资料价格已连续12个月下降。工业品出厂价格已经连续15个月下降。这表明国内市场供大于求的格局没有改变。物价水平持续低迷不仅影响企业效益，抑制投资扩大，而且影响居民收入预期，抑制消费增长。
　　2．就业矛盾日益突出，就业形势异常严峻。2001年底，中国城镇登记失业人数681万人，登记失业率为3.6%，比2000年底上升0.5个百分点。今年预计2002年新增就业人口加上现有失业和下岗人员，劳动力供给总量将超过2000万人。7%的增长率所能增加的就业岗位至多达到800万个，城镇劳动力供求矛盾十分突出。加上世界经济增幅放缓，国内经济结构、产业结构调整加快，深化改革，可持续发展的要求，加入WTO对产业特别是农业的冲击，农村富裕劳动力需要向城镇转移，就业形势更加严峻。
　　3．入世冲击开始显现，贸易摩擦不断增多。今年上半年尿素、食糖、小麦、钢材等进口增势迅猛，不仅影响我国贸易顺差，而且对我国相关产业造成严重冲击。同时国外保护主义抬头，应用反倾销和强化技术与环保标准对我出口产品设置障碍。今年以来国外提出的反倾销和保障措施立案调查已经达到23起，涉及7亿美元；欧盟禁止我动物源性商品出口，仅此一项影响我国出口7亿美元。
　　
　　问：中国经济能否继续保持高速增长，为什么？
　　
　　答：中国经济仍然能够持续快速健康发展，因为我们存在发展的有利条件。经过20多年的改革开放和社会主义现代化建设，我国的经济实力和综合国力大为提高，拥有比较雄厚的物质基础和储备；虽然目前存在一些不稳定的因素，但总体上看国内政治稳定、社会安定；经过20多年的改革开放，积累了比较丰富的经验，党领导社会主义现代化的水平不断提高；在世界经济减速的条件下，对我国经济增长的良好预期和对未来我国广阔市场的期待，使外资对我国的投资看好；加入WTO以后提供的机遇；深化改革、扩大开放，推进结构调整使我国能够比较充分地把经济潜力发挥出来，使经济保持比较长时期的迅速发展。
　　
　　问：社会主义市场经济是否已经基本建立？今后改革的重点、难点是什么？
　　
　　答：中国社会主义市场经济体制只能说初步建立。社会主义市场经济体制是同社会主义基本制度结合在一起的。这种结合突出地表现为坚持公有制为主体和以共同富裕为目标的市场经济体制。目前，市场经济同公有制的结合还不理想，公有制经济特别是起主导作用的国有经济从经济体制、运行机制到经济实绩还不能说已经解决了同市场经济的结合问题。社会分配方面也还存在不少问题。
　　今后的改革要在使市场经济同社会主义基本制度的结合上下更大的工夫。在积极发展多种经济形式的同时，通过实践努力寻找能够极大促进生产力发展的公有制经济的实现形式，探索既能充分提高经济效率和效益，又使收入差距保持广大群众所能承受的适度范围之内的分配制度和方式。
　　
　　问：有媒体认为，中国今后对外经济合作的重点不是引进外资，而是引进高新技术或人才，您怎么看？
　　
　　答：中国是在贫穷落后的历史遗产的条件下进行社会主义现代化建设的，既缺乏资金，又缺乏技术和人才。因此，引进国外资金、技术和人才，对加速社会主义现代化建设都是十分重要的。（完）
　　
　　
　　Chinese Economy Better than Expected: Economist
　　
　　In an interview with Business World, Professor Wu Shuqing, honorary president of Beijing University, talked about the current economic situation in China, striking problems faced by the Chinese economy, China‘s economic prospects and progress of China‘s economic reform program. Following are excerpts of the interview.
　　
　　Question: What is China‘s general economic situation at present?
　　
　　Answer: China‘s general economic situation at present is quite good, better than expected. Last year, the national economy developed at a fairly fast pace and then slowed down. Since the beginning of this year, thanks to the government‘s continued proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy as well as efforts to stimulate domestic demand and actively develop foreign trade, the national economy has developed steadily.
　　Growth of the national economy reached 7.6 percent in the first quarter of this year and 8 percent in the second quarter. Growth in the first half of this year stood at 7.8 percent. Characteristics of economic growth in the first six months of this year were: a sharp increase in capital spending (investment in fixed assets), higher-than-expected growth in exports, rising growth of industrial production, improvement of economic performance quality, and a steady increase of consumer spending.
　　Judged on national economic performance in the first half of the year, economic growth is not likely to slow down in the second half of this year, unlike what we witness in the same period of last year. I expect a continued, steady rise. We are faced with economic uncertainties on a global scale as well as an initial period of WTO membership when challenges to China inevitably outweigh opportunities. But, as long as we do our work well, it is possible for growth of our national economy for this year to reach the expected 7 percent, or even better.
　　
　　Q: What are problems with the Chinese economy that merit special attention?
　　
　　A: We should be sober-minded that the foundation for China‘s economic growth is not stable enough. Worsening deflation and weak effective demand are problems that have not been resolved. Economic growth faces a lack of inner drive. Striking problems now facing the Chinese economy are as follows:
　　1. The inadequacy of effective demand has not fundamentally changed; prices have remained low, and deflation continues to exist. For the last eight months since November 2001, prices have gone down or remained unchanged, and prices for capital goods have kept going down for 12 consecutive months, as have ex-factory prices of industrial products for 15 consecutive months. These indicate that the problem of supplies exceeding demand on the domestic market has not changed. A continued low price level not only affects the economic results of enterprises but also reins in growth in capital spending. This, in turn, will affect growth in people‘s incomes and rein in growth in consumer spending.
　　2. Mounting pressure on the job market. At the end of 2001, 6.81 million urban residents had registered as being unemployed, representing an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, up 0.5 percentage points over the end of the previous year. In 2002, with more young people entering the job market, plus the existing unemployed people, aggregate labor supply is expected to exceed 20 million people. In the meantime, new jobs created by a GDP growth of 7 percent can reach a maximum of eight million. This results in a heavy pressure on the job market. The unemployment situation is also exacerbated by the following factors: a slowing down world economy, speeded-up economic restructuring within the country, the need for achieving a sustainable economic development, the impact of China‘s entry of the WTO on the economy, particularly on agriculture, and the movement of rural surplus labor to cities.
　　3. The impact of WTO entry is beginning to show, and trade friction keeps increasing. In the first half of this year, imports of urea, sugar, wheat and steel products increased sharply. This has not only affected China‘s trade surplus but also seriously affected relevant industries in our country. In the meantime, trade protectionism abroad has reared its head, setting up roadblocks for Chinese products by using "anti-dumping" clauses and hiking technical and environmental protection standards. Since the beginning of this year, cases against Chinese products involving anti-dumping and safety guarantee investigations have numbered 23, involving US$700 million in value. The European Union has banned the import of animal-based goods from China. This alone affects US$700 million of Chinese exports.
　　
　　Q: Then, can the Chinese economy keep developing at a high rate?
　　
　　A: In my view, the Chinese economy can maintain a sustained, rapid and healthy development because we have a host of favorable conditions. After 20 years of reform-and-open-policy implementation and economic development, China‘s economic strength and comprehensive national strength have greatly increased. We now have a fairly solid material base and reserves. Despite the existence of some destabilizing factors, in general China now enjoys political and social stability. In the process of reform-and-open-policy implementation, we have gained fairly rich experience. The Party has kept improving its ability to lead socialist modernization. At a time when world economic growth is slowing down, China‘s bright economic prospects and great market potential are attracting more foreign investment to the country. WTO membership is expected to provide opportunities to China. And, with deepening reforms, opening wider to the outside world and economic restructuring, China is better able to bring into play its economic development potentials. All these are expected to contribute to a sustained growth of China‘s national economy.
　　
　　Q: Has China established a socialist market economy? Where do difficulties lie in China‘s future reforms?
　　
　　A: We can only say an "initial establishment" of a socialist market economy in China. A socialist market economic system takes socialism as the basic social system while market-oriented in economic development. A striking manifestation of this combination is that, under a socialist market economic system, public ownership is to be maintained as the dominant form of ownership and common prosperity for all shall be the objective. At present, a market economy is not perfectly combined with public ownership. Viewed from setup, operational mechanism and economic performance, the public economic sector, especially the state-owned sector, is not well combined with a market economy. And there are not a few problems in connection with social wealth distribution.
　　Future reforms should be spearheaded toward achieving a good combination of a market economy and socialism as a basic social system. Efforts should be made to actively develop economies of different ownership forms. Meanwhile, we should seek, through practice, a form of publicly-owned economy which can promote the development of productive forces to a maximum extent. And we need to explore for a social wealth distribution system that can raise productivity and economic results on one hand and keep income gaps within a range tolerable to the majority of people on the other.
　　
　　Q: Some media say that in the future the focus of China‘s foreign economic relations is not to attract foreign investment but introduce high-tech and talent. What is your opinion in this regard?
　　
　　A: China is modernizing itself under very backward conditions left over from history. It lacks capital as well as technology and talent. To speed up modernization, I think, it is important for the country to continue introducing foreign capital as well as technology and talent.