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领导人在国家经济发展中的作用越来越被重视,基于此,文章运用2003~2014年的面板数据,实证考察了东道国领导人任期对中国在“一带一路”沿线直接投资的影响作用。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线东道国领导人任期与中国对外直接投资存在显著的二次倒U型关系。但进一步的研究则发现,东道国领导人任期对中国对外直接投资的影响会因东道国政治体制和领导人对华态度的不同而存在明显差异,只有威权型东道国领导人任期才存在显著倒U型影响,而民主型东道国或对华态度友好的领导人任期均只存在显著的一次线性积极影响,排华领导人任期则只存在显著的一次线性消极影响。因此,中国企业开展海外直接投资必须重视东道国领导人的任期变化,并根据东道国政治体制和领导人对华态度,有针对性地采取相应策略。
Based on this, using the panel data from 2003 to 2014, this paper empirically examines the influence of host country leaders’ term on the direct investment in China along the “Belt & Road” . The study found that there was a significant second inverted U-shaped relationship between the tenure of host leaders along the “Belt and Road” and China’s foreign direct investment. However, further studies find that the influence of host country leaders ’term on China’s foreign direct investment will be significantly different due to differences in the host country’s political system and the leaders’ attitude toward China. Only the overtures of the leaders of the authoritarian host countries have significant U-shaped effects , While there was only a significant linear positive effect on the tenure of democratic host countries or friendly leaders toward China. There was only a significant linear negative impact on the tenure of Chinese leaders. Therefore, Chinese enterprises must pay special attention to the change of tenure of the leaders of overseas host countries and carry out corresponding strategies according to the host country’s political system and their attitude towards China.