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畜牧业是重要的碳排放源,中国作为畜牧业大国,测度畜牧业碳排放量并揭示其时空演化机制具有重要意义。运用全生命周期评价方法,测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,从时间和空间两个层面揭示了中国畜牧业碳排放的变化特征,进而采用动态面板数据模型揭示了畜牧业碳排放和城乡居民收入、城镇化之间的互动机制。结果表明:①2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由12669.899万t增长到13189.955万t,年均增速0.288%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比重达74.48%~79.50%;②研究期内,中国高、低畜牧业碳排放区空间格局基本保持不变,偏高、中度畜牧业碳排放区呈现出明显的动态演变态势,高、偏高畜牧业碳排放区基本位于边疆草原地区和粮食主产区,且排名前10位的畜牧业碳排放省区占全国畜牧业碳排放比重达57.50%;③2000-2007年,草原牧区是中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;而2007-2014年,农耕牧区演变为中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;④农民人均纯收入、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城镇化对畜牧业碳排放的影响系数分别为0.078、0.127和-0.145,三者动态变化将共同决定今后一段时间中国畜牧业碳排放增长的时空格局。
Animal husbandry is an important source of carbon emissions. As a major livestock husbandry country, China is of great significance in measuring the carbon emissions of livestock husbandry and revealing its temporal and spatial evolution mechanism. Using the method of whole life cycle assessment, the livestock carbon emissions in 31 provinces and autonomous regions in mainland China from 2000 to 2014 were measured. The characteristics of China’s animal husbandry carbon emissions were revealed from time and space level, and then the dynamic panel data model was used to reveal The livestock sector carbon emissions and urban-rural income, urbanization between the interaction mechanism. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2014, the total amount of livestock husbandry in China increased from 126.68989 million tons to 131.89955 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.288%. The carbon emissions from livestock and poultry gastrointestinal fermentation and manure management systems were the main sources , Both of which accounted for 74.48% -79.50% of the total carbon emissions from livestock husbandry. During the study period, the spatial pattern of high and low livestock husbandry carbon emissions remained basically unchanged. The trend of dynamic evolution is obvious. The high and high livestock husbandry carbon emission areas are basically located in the border grassland areas and main grain producing areas. The top 10 provinces of livestock carbon emissions account for 57.50% of the national livestock husbandry carbon emission. ③ From 2000 to 2007, grassland and pasture are the core areas for the growth of China’s livestock husbandry carbon emissions. From 2007 to 2014, the farming and pastoral areas evolved into the core area for the growth of China’s livestock husbandry carbon emissions. ④ The per capita net income of farmers, per capita disposable income of urban residents And urbanization on livestock carbon emissions were 0.078, 0.127 and -0.145 respectively. The dynamic changes of the three will jointly determine the spatial-temporal pattern of China’s livestock husbandry carbon emissions growth in the near future.