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当双鬓染霜的他在新年的爆竹声中敲开自己的家门时，这已是他阔别祖国、阔别妻子的第13个年头了。年近七旬的他这次回家，不仅在新年里给老伴与亲友们送上了久违的问候，还带来一份让人难以置信的惊喜。
作为杭州一名普通的退休工程师，他在美国花了12年的心血，终于读懂了云的语言，他将变幻莫测的云彩里里外外研究个透，让它乖乖成了“地震预报员”，为他一次次正确发布地震灾难预报当好“参谋”，正由于此，“寿仲浩”这三个字也成为国际上响当当的民间地震预报专家的代名词。
从云彩中预知台风
他7岁自制会开火的小手枪，35年前写出一整套保护黄河的方案，1979年又开始研究用化学方法治理杭州河道污染……寿仲浩从来不缺奇思妙想，不过他与云彩的缘分还是要从1988年8月7日说起。
那是一个晴朗的傍晚，寿仲浩牵着妻子与小女儿的手在杭州西湖边散步，发现天边的云彩正在不停地翻滚变化，幻化出五颜六色与各种形状，煞是好看。女儿不禁拍着手掌欢呼：“老师说这叫火烧云，真漂亮。”“这云彩变得好快，简直像走马灯一样。”妻子附和道。而从小在农村长大、对气象预报颇有见解的寿仲浩，则在一旁皱起了眉头：“云彩变化的速度快得惊人，如果不是受强大的气流影响，绝对不可能这样，怕是台风要来了吧?!”
一回到家，寿仲浩便拿起木条、榔头和钉子在自家的屋里屋外忙开了：他要将每扇窗户都钉得牢牢的。隔壁邻居好奇地过来打听：“老寿，你这是干什么呢?”“台风要来了。”寿仲浩认真地说。没想到这个回答却引来邻居的嘲笑：“气象台都没预报，你凭几朵云彩就知道要刮台风了?”有意思的是，寿仲浩的话还真灵验，第二天“八号台风”便席卷全杭城，西湖边的大树许多被刮倒，这下连妻子都不得不佩服寿仲浩的“神机妙算”了!
第一次预报地震
看云看出门道的寿仲浩，接着又在1990年6月20日万里无云的杭州上空，瞧见了西边突然出现一道竹竿似的云彩。“这绝对不是普通的气象云!”他想着，忽然记起《光明日报》刊登的一篇有关“地震云”的文章，他脑海里电光火石般一闪：“这就是‘地震云’!”
下班后，寿仲浩一头扎进了杭州图书馆地震资料文献中，找到了由西安科学出版社出版的《这是地震云》一书。该书描述了“地震云”的形状，并将其定义为“地震前的一种先兆”，这一说法，证实了寿仲浩的想法。根据资料与眼下这条出现在西方上空的竹竿状云彩，他当即向两位同事预言：“西面不久将有一场地震。”果然，18小时后伊朗发生了大地震!这是寿仲浩第一次准确预报地震，并得到了两位同事的书面证明。
一场地震改变后半生
但真正促使寿仲浩走上预报地震之路的，却是一场发生在美国加州的“北山地震(Northridge Earthquake)”。
“要是没有那场地震，也许就不会有我们老两口13年的分离。”仰望苍穹，寿仲浩打开了记忆的阀门：1993年5月，他应在美国加州理工学院读书的大女儿邀请，赴美探亲，计划暂住一年后即回国。不料次年1月8日上午7点半(当地时间)，他在天空中发现了一朵形似羽毛的云彩，极像“地震云”，他当即拍下照片。冲印出来后又按照自己所掌握的相关知识，对照片中的“地震云”作了各种分析，初步判定在1月12日至27日，南加州帕桑迪那西北，将有一次六级以上的大地震。
寿仲浩操着半生不熟的英语跑到USGS(美国国家地质测绘局)想去说一下他的这一发现，然而时逢双休日，他在USGS办公室外吃了个闭门羹，只得等到周一再去，不想地震却在17日即周一早晨4点30分发生了!在发生地震时的30秒内，寿仲浩宛如置身于大风大浪的小船中，半步都挪不了。
值得一提的是，这次大地震发生在美国地震学家认为的“无震区”，人员的损失伤亡相当惨重。这次地震的时间、地点、震级均与寿仲浩的预测完全一致，由此他感悟到了自己在这方面的责任，为了进一步探究“地震云”，摸透它们的脾性，于是这位年过花甲的知识分子改变了探亲计划，他决定在美国开始与“地震云”进一步“对话”。这一对话，竟让他在美国又住了12年!
叫板“板块学说”
经过长年的研究与实践检验，寿仲浩终于独创了一套“地震云”理论。
他的理论认为：地壳的薄弱部分在外力下首先破裂，从而引发小地震，造成多处裂缝，于是地表水沿裂缝向地下渗透，并由摩擦产生的热量加热地下水产生了蒸汽，久而久之形成了高压高热的蒸汽，这蒸汽冲出地面遇冷凝结成云，这便是“地震云”的由来。在地震云产生以后，地下产生脱水，岩石的强度突然下降，最终引发了大地震。“这个理论能够用事实加以证实，”寿仲浩说，“北山地震之前，在震源10千米范围内发生过79次小地震；唐山地震中有人被烫伤；唐山地震时平房没有倒塌，而天花板上却冲了个洞等等事例，都与我这项理论不谋而合。”寿仲浩得意地微笑着。
虽然“地震云”理论与“大陆板块学说”关于引发地震的起因大相径庭，但他却信心十足地告诉笔者：“我坚信自己的看法是正确的，完全可以挑战‘板块学说’，历史与时间将会替我作出证明。”
理清了“地震云”的来龙去脉，寿仲浩更加醉心于利用这种特殊的云预报地震的研究了。他每天工作12小时，想方设法搜罗大量的数据进行统计分析，终于琢磨出如何区别“地震云”与气象云，即观察此天空云层时，应该弄清天空所积聚的云层是否有特殊形状、固定的蒸汽源与热量?是否突然出现?是否具有独立的速度?寿仲浩还掌握了用“地震云”尾巴所指的方向来判断震中，而后比较其“尾巴”大小确定震级，并以其出现的相隔时间来确定地震发生的时间。
依据其独创的理论，寿仲浩这些年来先后向USGS预报了50次地震。按照时间误差不超过一分钟、震中距离误差不超过1公里、震级误差不超过0.1级的美国标准，寿仲浩这50次预报中有34次达到了“准确”。他还于1999年5月建立了属于他自己的地震预报网(quake.exit.com)，至今已向全世界预报了1400余次地震，准确率达到70%。
12年的等候与理解
这位能读懂云的语言的老者，如今已先后接受了美国、英国、印度、伊朗等多国媒体的采访，并于2004年参加了联合国空间防灾应用程序会议以及欧洲地震探讨会议等国际性会议。他的论文不但发表在英国、土耳其等国的杂志上，还出现在联合国的空间防灾文献上。
在寿仲浩如潮的荣誉背后，却是妻子方女士在杭州的12年等候与理解。在分离的日子里，妻子的情绪曾在一次越洋电话中爆发：“你忘记了自己的年龄与身体是不是?你能不能保证你的研究最终一定成功?你到美国后一分钱没赚不说还拿女儿那点可怜的奖学金作海阔天空的赌博，你忍心吗?!……”
同样远在大洋彼岸的女儿却拿过听筒阻止母亲：“妈，你将爸的事当作普通人退休以后的种花养鱼吧?人总得做点有益的事。”妻子想了想又问丈夫：“如果你将后半生生命全部投入进去，最后不成功会后悔吗?”寿仲浩沉默了一下：“不，我不后悔!因为我至少努力过。”妻子终于尊重了他的选择，开始了一个人在杭州的漫长等待。
寿仲浩对妻子深表歉意的同时，依然对“地震云”的研究乐此不疲：“2003年12月26日那次伊朗大地震发生前几天，我家的网络断了，待其恢复后，我根据网上搜集的数据判断伊朗要发生大地震，赶紧将消息发布在我的地震预报网上，结果第二天同时收到中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会顾问陈一文先生与土耳其克姆汉立特大学情报系主任西立特教授的电子邮件，祝贺我分毫不差地正确预报了这次地震，并对我取得的成绩表示祝贺。但是我高兴的同时又感到悲哀：我能够挽救这些可能死于地震灾难的人们，但可惜的是受我手头的资源与条件所限，不能以最快的速度把一些地震消息发布出去，不然，可以救更多的人!”寿仲浩感慨地说。
笔者临走时，寿仲浩再三表示：“若能得到当代伯乐的资助，改善我的研究条件，得到更全的卫星云图与地震数据，我的预报有可能直冲全世界的大地震，将震中定在20公里的范围内，震级的误差能够到0.2级，时间窗口能够到20天以内。那样，地震给予人们的灾难将得到最大限度的控制。”
Life
Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds
By Shen Menghe
When silver-haired Shou Zhonghao finally came back from the States to reunite with his wife in Hangzhou in 2006, they had been separated for 13 years. Shou, in his 70s, came back not only for sharing Happy New Year wishes with his wife, relatives and friends, but also bringing them an unexpected surprise: He is now internationally recognized as an expert who issues quite accurate earthquake forecasts by analyzing clouds and posting earthquake forecasts worldwide at his Internet website.
Child and man, Shou is full of inspirational ideas. The cloud-gazer of today learned to make a handgun which could fire at the age of 7. He dreamed up an ambitious project to preserve the Yellow River thirty-five years ago. In 1979 he began to research how to use chemicals to solve the pollution that hampered the rivers that crisscrossed the downtown Hangzhou. His destiny with clouds started precisely on the evening of August 7, 1988.
In the early evening of that day, Shou was taking a stroll with his wife and his youngest daughter by the West Lake in Hangzhou. Suddenly he saw the rolling clouds changing rapidly in a fantastic way in the sky. With some knowledge of weather changes gained in his childhood years in the rural area, Shou wondered if a typhoon was coming. He reasoned that the clouds could not have reacted so vehemently and so fast without fierce impacts from powerful air currents. He concluded that it could be the precursor of a typhoon.
Back home that evening, he lost no time making himself busy fastening windows with wooden boards. Neighbors became curious and asked why he was doing this. Shou explained that a typhoon was on its way. Neighbors laughed off his idea because there was no mention of a typhoon by the local weather bureau.And how could Shou tell by the way the clouds changed? But an unexpected typhoon caught the scenic city off guard the next day and brought about heavy disasters. The disaster has been one of the worst memories of local residents in Hangzhou.
Clouds again caught his eyes on June 20, 1990 in Hangzhou. A long thin cloud resembling a bamboo pole suddenly appeared in the cloudless sky and streaked across the western sky. It meant something unusual, Shou said to himself. Then he remembered a newspaper feature about clouds that would precede earthquakes. He thought the cloud could mean an earthquake going to break out somewhere in the west.
He threw himself into the library that day. He compared what he read with what he had seen and came to the conclusion that there would be an earthquake. He made a forecast about an earthquake to his two colleagues that day. Eighteen hours later, a horrible earthquake shook Iran.
But it was another earthquake in the United States that brought unexpected radical changes to his retired life. In May 1993, he went to visit his daughter in California. Shou planned to stay with his daughter for a year. But at 7:30 on the morning of January 8, 1994, Shou saw a feather-shaped cloud in the sky and he thought it could be an indication of an oncoming earthquake. He took photographs and analyzed these pictures. Then he forecast that there would be an earthquake of more than magnitude 6 on Richter scale in southern California between January 12 and 27. Shou went to the local US Geological Survey to report his forecast. But the USGS office happened to be off during the weekend. So he decided to report his forecast on the following Monday. The Northridge earthquake occurred at 4:30 in the early morning of Monday, January 17, 1994. The earth shook for 30 seconds. Shou felt as if he had been on a ship on the raging sea.The disastrous quake verified Shou's accurate prediction. Shou felt he had the responsibility for forecasting more earthquakes and decided to stay in America to do more work on earthquake forecast.
Shou has done a lot in the 13 years. He has developed unorthodox theories to unravel earthquake information hidden in clouds, to explain how an earthquake takes shape and how clouds can herald quakes deep down in earth. His theories are way different from those based on modern geology. Over years, Shou has reported 50 forecasts to USGS. And if measured with American standard for accuracy of an earthquake forecast which tolerates an error of 1 minute in time, 1 kilometer in distance and 0.1 in magnitude, thirty-four earthquake forecasts of the 50 made by Shou were up to the strict standard. This can well testify to the usefulness of his theories on earthquake.
In May 1999, Shou set up an Internet website to forecast earthquakes. So far he has broadcast more than 1,400 warnings from his quake.exit.com. His track record has shown a startling accuracy of seventy percent.
Shou the cloud gazer now has attended a UN conference and a European forum on earthquake. His papers have been published in Britain, Turkey as well as in UN literature.
Behind his success is the eventually earned understanding and support from his wife after the 13-year separation with his wife. Today, he wishes to make more accurate forecast on earthquake. He wishes to make more accurate forecasts and allow longer time windows so that urgent measures can be taken to minimize loss of life and property.
(Translated by David)
作为杭州一名普通的退休工程师，他在美国花了12年的心血，终于读懂了云的语言，他将变幻莫测的云彩里里外外研究个透，让它乖乖成了“地震预报员”，为他一次次正确发布地震灾难预报当好“参谋”，正由于此，“寿仲浩”这三个字也成为国际上响当当的民间地震预报专家的代名词。
从云彩中预知台风
他7岁自制会开火的小手枪，35年前写出一整套保护黄河的方案，1979年又开始研究用化学方法治理杭州河道污染……寿仲浩从来不缺奇思妙想，不过他与云彩的缘分还是要从1988年8月7日说起。
那是一个晴朗的傍晚，寿仲浩牵着妻子与小女儿的手在杭州西湖边散步，发现天边的云彩正在不停地翻滚变化，幻化出五颜六色与各种形状，煞是好看。女儿不禁拍着手掌欢呼：“老师说这叫火烧云，真漂亮。”“这云彩变得好快，简直像走马灯一样。”妻子附和道。而从小在农村长大、对气象预报颇有见解的寿仲浩，则在一旁皱起了眉头：“云彩变化的速度快得惊人，如果不是受强大的气流影响，绝对不可能这样，怕是台风要来了吧?!”
一回到家，寿仲浩便拿起木条、榔头和钉子在自家的屋里屋外忙开了：他要将每扇窗户都钉得牢牢的。隔壁邻居好奇地过来打听：“老寿，你这是干什么呢?”“台风要来了。”寿仲浩认真地说。没想到这个回答却引来邻居的嘲笑：“气象台都没预报，你凭几朵云彩就知道要刮台风了?”有意思的是，寿仲浩的话还真灵验，第二天“八号台风”便席卷全杭城，西湖边的大树许多被刮倒，这下连妻子都不得不佩服寿仲浩的“神机妙算”了!
第一次预报地震
看云看出门道的寿仲浩，接着又在1990年6月20日万里无云的杭州上空，瞧见了西边突然出现一道竹竿似的云彩。“这绝对不是普通的气象云!”他想着，忽然记起《光明日报》刊登的一篇有关“地震云”的文章，他脑海里电光火石般一闪：“这就是‘地震云’!”
下班后，寿仲浩一头扎进了杭州图书馆地震资料文献中，找到了由西安科学出版社出版的《这是地震云》一书。该书描述了“地震云”的形状，并将其定义为“地震前的一种先兆”，这一说法，证实了寿仲浩的想法。根据资料与眼下这条出现在西方上空的竹竿状云彩，他当即向两位同事预言：“西面不久将有一场地震。”果然，18小时后伊朗发生了大地震!这是寿仲浩第一次准确预报地震，并得到了两位同事的书面证明。
一场地震改变后半生
但真正促使寿仲浩走上预报地震之路的，却是一场发生在美国加州的“北山地震(Northridge Earthquake)”。
“要是没有那场地震，也许就不会有我们老两口13年的分离。”仰望苍穹，寿仲浩打开了记忆的阀门：1993年5月，他应在美国加州理工学院读书的大女儿邀请，赴美探亲，计划暂住一年后即回国。不料次年1月8日上午7点半(当地时间)，他在天空中发现了一朵形似羽毛的云彩，极像“地震云”，他当即拍下照片。冲印出来后又按照自己所掌握的相关知识，对照片中的“地震云”作了各种分析，初步判定在1月12日至27日，南加州帕桑迪那西北，将有一次六级以上的大地震。
寿仲浩操着半生不熟的英语跑到USGS(美国国家地质测绘局)想去说一下他的这一发现，然而时逢双休日，他在USGS办公室外吃了个闭门羹，只得等到周一再去，不想地震却在17日即周一早晨4点30分发生了!在发生地震时的30秒内，寿仲浩宛如置身于大风大浪的小船中，半步都挪不了。
值得一提的是，这次大地震发生在美国地震学家认为的“无震区”，人员的损失伤亡相当惨重。这次地震的时间、地点、震级均与寿仲浩的预测完全一致，由此他感悟到了自己在这方面的责任，为了进一步探究“地震云”，摸透它们的脾性，于是这位年过花甲的知识分子改变了探亲计划，他决定在美国开始与“地震云”进一步“对话”。这一对话，竟让他在美国又住了12年!
叫板“板块学说”
经过长年的研究与实践检验，寿仲浩终于独创了一套“地震云”理论。
他的理论认为：地壳的薄弱部分在外力下首先破裂，从而引发小地震，造成多处裂缝，于是地表水沿裂缝向地下渗透，并由摩擦产生的热量加热地下水产生了蒸汽，久而久之形成了高压高热的蒸汽，这蒸汽冲出地面遇冷凝结成云，这便是“地震云”的由来。在地震云产生以后，地下产生脱水，岩石的强度突然下降，最终引发了大地震。“这个理论能够用事实加以证实，”寿仲浩说，“北山地震之前，在震源10千米范围内发生过79次小地震；唐山地震中有人被烫伤；唐山地震时平房没有倒塌，而天花板上却冲了个洞等等事例，都与我这项理论不谋而合。”寿仲浩得意地微笑着。
虽然“地震云”理论与“大陆板块学说”关于引发地震的起因大相径庭，但他却信心十足地告诉笔者：“我坚信自己的看法是正确的，完全可以挑战‘板块学说’，历史与时间将会替我作出证明。”
理清了“地震云”的来龙去脉，寿仲浩更加醉心于利用这种特殊的云预报地震的研究了。他每天工作12小时，想方设法搜罗大量的数据进行统计分析，终于琢磨出如何区别“地震云”与气象云，即观察此天空云层时，应该弄清天空所积聚的云层是否有特殊形状、固定的蒸汽源与热量?是否突然出现?是否具有独立的速度?寿仲浩还掌握了用“地震云”尾巴所指的方向来判断震中，而后比较其“尾巴”大小确定震级，并以其出现的相隔时间来确定地震发生的时间。
依据其独创的理论，寿仲浩这些年来先后向USGS预报了50次地震。按照时间误差不超过一分钟、震中距离误差不超过1公里、震级误差不超过0.1级的美国标准，寿仲浩这50次预报中有34次达到了“准确”。他还于1999年5月建立了属于他自己的地震预报网(quake.exit.com)，至今已向全世界预报了1400余次地震，准确率达到70%。
12年的等候与理解
这位能读懂云的语言的老者，如今已先后接受了美国、英国、印度、伊朗等多国媒体的采访，并于2004年参加了联合国空间防灾应用程序会议以及欧洲地震探讨会议等国际性会议。他的论文不但发表在英国、土耳其等国的杂志上，还出现在联合国的空间防灾文献上。
在寿仲浩如潮的荣誉背后，却是妻子方女士在杭州的12年等候与理解。在分离的日子里，妻子的情绪曾在一次越洋电话中爆发：“你忘记了自己的年龄与身体是不是?你能不能保证你的研究最终一定成功?你到美国后一分钱没赚不说还拿女儿那点可怜的奖学金作海阔天空的赌博，你忍心吗?!……”
同样远在大洋彼岸的女儿却拿过听筒阻止母亲：“妈，你将爸的事当作普通人退休以后的种花养鱼吧?人总得做点有益的事。”妻子想了想又问丈夫：“如果你将后半生生命全部投入进去，最后不成功会后悔吗?”寿仲浩沉默了一下：“不，我不后悔!因为我至少努力过。”妻子终于尊重了他的选择，开始了一个人在杭州的漫长等待。
寿仲浩对妻子深表歉意的同时，依然对“地震云”的研究乐此不疲：“2003年12月26日那次伊朗大地震发生前几天，我家的网络断了，待其恢复后，我根据网上搜集的数据判断伊朗要发生大地震，赶紧将消息发布在我的地震预报网上，结果第二天同时收到中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会顾问陈一文先生与土耳其克姆汉立特大学情报系主任西立特教授的电子邮件，祝贺我分毫不差地正确预报了这次地震，并对我取得的成绩表示祝贺。但是我高兴的同时又感到悲哀：我能够挽救这些可能死于地震灾难的人们，但可惜的是受我手头的资源与条件所限，不能以最快的速度把一些地震消息发布出去，不然，可以救更多的人!”寿仲浩感慨地说。
笔者临走时，寿仲浩再三表示：“若能得到当代伯乐的资助，改善我的研究条件，得到更全的卫星云图与地震数据，我的预报有可能直冲全世界的大地震，将震中定在20公里的范围内，震级的误差能够到0.2级，时间窗口能够到20天以内。那样，地震给予人们的灾难将得到最大限度的控制。”
Life
Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds
By Shen Menghe
When silver-haired Shou Zhonghao finally came back from the States to reunite with his wife in Hangzhou in 2006, they had been separated for 13 years. Shou, in his 70s, came back not only for sharing Happy New Year wishes with his wife, relatives and friends, but also bringing them an unexpected surprise: He is now internationally recognized as an expert who issues quite accurate earthquake forecasts by analyzing clouds and posting earthquake forecasts worldwide at his Internet website.
Child and man, Shou is full of inspirational ideas. The cloud-gazer of today learned to make a handgun which could fire at the age of 7. He dreamed up an ambitious project to preserve the Yellow River thirty-five years ago. In 1979 he began to research how to use chemicals to solve the pollution that hampered the rivers that crisscrossed the downtown Hangzhou. His destiny with clouds started precisely on the evening of August 7, 1988.
In the early evening of that day, Shou was taking a stroll with his wife and his youngest daughter by the West Lake in Hangzhou. Suddenly he saw the rolling clouds changing rapidly in a fantastic way in the sky. With some knowledge of weather changes gained in his childhood years in the rural area, Shou wondered if a typhoon was coming. He reasoned that the clouds could not have reacted so vehemently and so fast without fierce impacts from powerful air currents. He concluded that it could be the precursor of a typhoon.
Back home that evening, he lost no time making himself busy fastening windows with wooden boards. Neighbors became curious and asked why he was doing this. Shou explained that a typhoon was on its way. Neighbors laughed off his idea because there was no mention of a typhoon by the local weather bureau.And how could Shou tell by the way the clouds changed? But an unexpected typhoon caught the scenic city off guard the next day and brought about heavy disasters. The disaster has been one of the worst memories of local residents in Hangzhou.
Clouds again caught his eyes on June 20, 1990 in Hangzhou. A long thin cloud resembling a bamboo pole suddenly appeared in the cloudless sky and streaked across the western sky. It meant something unusual, Shou said to himself. Then he remembered a newspaper feature about clouds that would precede earthquakes. He thought the cloud could mean an earthquake going to break out somewhere in the west.
He threw himself into the library that day. He compared what he read with what he had seen and came to the conclusion that there would be an earthquake. He made a forecast about an earthquake to his two colleagues that day. Eighteen hours later, a horrible earthquake shook Iran.
But it was another earthquake in the United States that brought unexpected radical changes to his retired life. In May 1993, he went to visit his daughter in California. Shou planned to stay with his daughter for a year. But at 7:30 on the morning of January 8, 1994, Shou saw a feather-shaped cloud in the sky and he thought it could be an indication of an oncoming earthquake. He took photographs and analyzed these pictures. Then he forecast that there would be an earthquake of more than magnitude 6 on Richter scale in southern California between January 12 and 27. Shou went to the local US Geological Survey to report his forecast. But the USGS office happened to be off during the weekend. So he decided to report his forecast on the following Monday. The Northridge earthquake occurred at 4:30 in the early morning of Monday, January 17, 1994. The earth shook for 30 seconds. Shou felt as if he had been on a ship on the raging sea.The disastrous quake verified Shou's accurate prediction. Shou felt he had the responsibility for forecasting more earthquakes and decided to stay in America to do more work on earthquake forecast.
Shou has done a lot in the 13 years. He has developed unorthodox theories to unravel earthquake information hidden in clouds, to explain how an earthquake takes shape and how clouds can herald quakes deep down in earth. His theories are way different from those based on modern geology. Over years, Shou has reported 50 forecasts to USGS. And if measured with American standard for accuracy of an earthquake forecast which tolerates an error of 1 minute in time, 1 kilometer in distance and 0.1 in magnitude, thirty-four earthquake forecasts of the 50 made by Shou were up to the strict standard. This can well testify to the usefulness of his theories on earthquake.
In May 1999, Shou set up an Internet website to forecast earthquakes. So far he has broadcast more than 1,400 warnings from his quake.exit.com. His track record has shown a startling accuracy of seventy percent.
Shou the cloud gazer now has attended a UN conference and a European forum on earthquake. His papers have been published in Britain, Turkey as well as in UN literature.
Behind his success is the eventually earned understanding and support from his wife after the 13-year separation with his wife. Today, he wishes to make more accurate forecast on earthquake. He wishes to make more accurate forecasts and allow longer time windows so that urgent measures can be taken to minimize loss of life and property.
(Translated by David)