The impact of Macroeconomic uncertainty on the company's capital requirements and investment

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  Abstract:Macroeconomic uncertainty is inevitably in the process of economic development.Therefore, the study of the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on capital requirements and investments for the company is extremely important.This article analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the company’s investment behavior from the perspectives of the economic cycle, the type of company and the type of industries.
  Regarding the fund demand, this article has a elaboration and analysis especially from the aspects of liquidity requirements and long-term funding demand.
  Key words:Macroeconomic uncertainty; Liquidity; Long-term
  \1. Introduction
  Economic theory tells us that when the economy is not good, the government generally adopts the aggressive monetary policies, when the economy is overheated, the government will adopt tighter fiscal policies. For the enterprise, the financing is becoming difficult gradually with slim profits and the reduction of net assets. The bad financing environment and the increase of financing cost would result in the qualitative change of the company's investment behavior which is very likely to have a greater impact on macro-economic. If the corporation is in an environment with expansionary financial and monetary polices, the company will have more available funds to improve the plight of enterprises by borrowing more funds from commercial banks. The government wants to prevent the economy from further deterioration in economy and help the company to cross the difficult barriers through such means. But this approach does not have a good effect in practice. For example, after the Japanese economic bubble burst, the Bank of Japan stimulated the economy in this way but let people deep in crisis. The United States adopted some loose economic strategy after the economic crisis but did not solve practical problems and the U.S. economy did not have a quick recovery. In fact, economic downturn would lead to the macroeconomic uncertainty, the company's employment, yield, production efficiency will decline, the company would become very cautious and would reduce the investment and construction in all aspects along with the declines in wages and prices, fiscal and monetary policies would produce a smaller affect. Macroeconomic uncertainty will only make companies see the ambiguous in the future and fear they would face huge financial problems. All the financial matter will become sensitive under such a situation. Companies are bound to reduce the investment with the rising of financial constraints because they can not face the high macroeconomic uncertainty. Entrepreneurs will consider the macroeconomic uncertainty. As the fluctuations in the output of the company is big, the project risk become particularly prominent, entrepreneurs can expect they will have a higher financial risk and the capital might not be recovered and they may suffer a loss so the investment demand will become very low. In the 1990s, Japanese companies have a lot of cash without strong financing constraints, but entrepreneurs still have no strong investment demand. An important purpose of corporate finance is to maintain financial health and keep the company’s investment ability even if the economy is not good. So it is very important to study the macroeconomic uncertainty for corporate finance, investment and so on.   Macroeconomic uncertainty has a huge impact on companies and other economic entities and it will reduce the investment rate and the resources allocation of the company. Commercial bank, with a lot of credit allocation problems, will reduce the support for small and medium-sized enterprises. As in the economic downturn, the small and medium-sized enterprises face greater risks, they will collapse at any time and face huge responsibility, if they are unable to repay bank loans, the bank will have a large number of bad debts. Macroeconomic uncertainty has a lot of influence to the lending of bank to the companies, there are differences between banks with different profit and capital scale. The macro-economy will increase the company's bankruptcy rate and increase financial instability. More important is that macroeconomic uncertainty will act in different ways such as interest rates and so on to affect the company’s investment. Different channels will have different effects. Sales capability also has certain influence to the company's investment behavior and lead to changes in the scale of company's investment. At this time, what affect the company's investment is external demand instead of the changes of internal fund. The effect of adjusting fiscal or monetary policy to the company's investment is small, the size of the company's investment can be changed only by adjusting the company's external demand. Corporate financing constraints also have an impact on the investment behavior and determine whether the company has the access to external and internal funds. The direction of the financing is a very important problem as it determine the purpose of financing and its essence is the financing needs of the company. Liquidity demand financing is used to maintain the normal business activities while long-term funding needs are the investment and project funds prepared by the company for its development which is related to the future development of the enterprise and it is the driving force for the development of enterprises. The two aspects are different. Under the situation of macro economic uncertainty, if the level is higher, the companies pay more attention to cash flow in order to ensure the normal operation of the company every day, instead of considering the company’s development in three to five years. The macro-economy will influence corporate investment behavior through liquid funds especially short-term investments.
  The Company will increase financial flexibility and absorb some long-term investment funds. The impact of the expansion of financial policy will be reduced. If the degree is lower, the company would be at ease on the current status of operation and will move its business focus to future development with more attention on long-term funding requirements. The increased currency will become the new investment funds for the company’s long-term investment which will eventually promote the growth of macro-economy.   2. the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the company's investment
  Sales income and production have remarkable effect to corporate capital. Sales profit in the future depends on the sales at present and the past. The sales hysteresis decide it impossible for the company to adjust the financing volume according to the current sales. The present sales level does not represent the future of it. The sales level and ability is confirmed according to sales ability now and in the future then the company will make rational decisions and use the existing funds. Under the circumstances of macroeconomic uncertainty, the company’s reflect to external economy is not strong. As the uncertainty will improve the practical value, the company will be more cautious on its investment behavior. If there is damage in capital investment, the cash flow will be threatened or even break, the company would face the threat of bankrupt at any time. It is of vital importance for the company to maintain stable operations with the higher uncertainty. The value of doing nothing may exceed the value of investment. The loss of investment failure may lead to a chain reaction. Therefore, in this case, even if the company's profits rise, the company can not have blind investment and the new investment must be reduced. The impact caused by the decline of sales income on the company's investment behavior is very small. External demand also has its own uncertainty which can also lead to the reduction of the company's investment especially in small and medium enterprises. The degree of macroeconomic uncertainty would increase the impact of sales income and the company will reduce the external investment.
  Macroeconomic uncertainty has great influence to the investment of fixed assets. The stronger the uncertainty is, the investment in fixed assets will be much less. This is because managers’ prediction for the future economic development is not clear, the fixed assets investment does not bring short-term effect and the financial conditions can not be improved obviously. Fixed assets investment is revealed more in the long-term effect. The uncertainty in economic development which the company is facing at present let this type of investment seemed not conducive to the development of the enterprise. In view of the different investment fields, there are some differences in the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the investment of fixed assets. When uncertainty is very strong, the state-owned assets and foreign assets levels would rise. As they hold a lot of money for the long term, the stronger uncertainty means more business opportunities, so their level of investment increases instead of falling. Generally speaking, developed areas would be affected more while less developed regions would be affected less. Developed areas is more sensitive to the trend of economic, because they always need a lot of cash flow to support the development of enterprises, once the wrong investment occurred, there would be huge influence to the development of enterprises. So each investment need to be careful. Real estate investment is less affected than in the infrastructure field. The infrastructure fields pay more attention to the investment in fixed assets, because their major operation mode relies on fixed assets, such as equipment, etc..   In different economic cycles, the investment behavior of the company is not the same due to the macroeconomic uncertainty. In the economic downturn, the general environment is not good so the company would go bankrupt to a large extent. The financial institutions will be greatly affected and allocation crisis will occur. Enterprises lack of funds can not get financial support even if the interest rates are increased and the level of financing would greatly reduced. In economic development period, the company's financing environment is good, the corresponding return on investment is much better than the return in the economic downturn period. So the financial institutions will release a lot of funds to fight for a greater return on investment. Macro economy influence enterprise investment behavior through liquidity demand and long-term demand and so on. And during the economic downturn period, the external behavior is more likely to affect the company's investment behavior, such as sales profits.
  The nature of the company also has certain influence on the company’s investment with macroeconomic uncertainty. In China, policies have a great effect on state-owned enterprises which are the economic lifeline of China. State-owned enterprises have the main role in the negotiation of supply and demand. The political background can improve the state-owned enterprises’ ability of resource acquisition, including the convenience in the aspects of tax and business. State-owned enterprises have a better credibility in bank than general small and medium-sized private enterprises. State-owned enterprises is supported by national financial and they can get more bank loans with a longer duration, the commercial banks are more willing to provide service for state-owned enterprises. State owned enterprises can easily survive the difficult period, in the case of macroeconomic uncertainty, they still have a certain ability to invest and have a bigger chance to reverse the development of enterprise. Non state enterprises are faced with the same situation, the risk bearing capacity is obviously insufficient, the impact caused by uncertainty is greater and the support from financial institutions such as bank is significantly reduced. For state-owned enterprises, when the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty is high, the external demand of enterprises and other related factors play a role in promoting their investment behavior. This uncertainty will affect the enterprise behavior, conservative investment behavior will reduce state-owned asset. For the non state enterprises, external demand is the main channel that affects the investment behavior. Private enterprises face the uncertainty of macroeconomic mainly through internal financing.   In the context of macroeconomic uncertainty, Different industries have significant otherness. The capital structure of manufacturing and non manufacturing has a very big difference, industry competition has significant effect on company’s investment behavior. Under the different situation, enterprises will adopt different mode of competition, for example, in the face of new entrants, enterprises can use price competition, while in the face of a competitor with equal strength, a win-win cooperation could be adopted and win success together. Macroeconomic uncertainty can affect the investment behavior of manufacturing enterprises through long-term capital demand, but it does not play a role in external channels.
  The level of the company's financing will also have an impact on the demand for funds. If the financing ability is higher, the investment behavior of enterprises will be more radical. Enterprises without financing constraints are not easy to feel the changes in the economic cycle. Changes in the economic situation will bring changes to financing ability. The impact of Macroeconomic uncertainty to the investment of companies with different financing capacity are the same. Macroeconomic uncertainty play a role through liquidity needs for enterprises with low financing capacity.
  3. The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the company's financial demand
  Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the liquidity funds needs of the company. The liquidity funds needs of the company include short-term loans, long-term loans, bonds, etc.. In the case that the company has a lot of liquidity funds, the general operating conditions of the company is good and all the existing investments have a stable rate of return with a large cash flow so as to maintain. Under the normal operation of the company, there is a certain amount of the balance used for all kinds of investment, so the company's investment capacity is very strong. If the company's future liquidity uncertainty is very high, then the financing will be difficult and the company's investment capacity will be reduced. The company did not dare to use cash for investment in order to avoid falling into a larger financial crisis. As a result, the uncertainty of liquidity needs lead to the decrease of options and prompted the company to carry out the options. If the mobility is low, the waiting cost would be high. High liquidity will reduce the company's investment risk and decrease the waiting cost of encouraging investment. There is also a certain relationship between liquidity and investment, the company’s ephemeral high liquidity will make it suffer smaller financial constraints and reduce the risk of inability to invest in the future. Therefore, higher mobility will promote the improvement of investment environment.   But the company's timely investment will be negative. If the company's liquidity holdings is low, the probability of company’s investment will increase. However, whether the company made an absolute investment has a closely correlation with the current macroeconomic environment. Liquidity is also affected by the macroeconomic environment. It is difficult for the company to see the future clearly and judge its own development with the macroeconomic uncertainty, and the liquidity demand is difficult to be estimated too. The company hopes to get through bad economic downturn with lower management cost. When macro-economy is stable, the economic development will enter into a state of steady rise. The existing investment of the company can get certain return basing on the overall economic development in a large extent. The future liquidity demand can be predicted and more effective investment strategies would be adopted. Managers’ judge on the liquidity demand is determined by the degree of the future macroeconomic uncertainty which will affect the changes of liquidity demand. If the degree of uncertainty is high, the company would be disappointed on the future returns of investment. The managers will reduce investment and be more cautious of investment opportunities. Liquidity should be increased through some other ways to maintain the flexibility of the company's financial. In short, the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more demand for liquidity.
  Macroeconomic uncertainty also affects the long-term funding needs of the company's investment. Long term funds include long-term loans, long-term bonds and so on. The developers and investors of the company have uncertainty in the understanding of the company in a certain degree. The occurrence of high cost and inefficient investment in external investment market make investors unable to have properly assess of the favored enterprises. Sometimes, there are investment mistakes which make some high-quality companies fail to get the attention of investors and missed the best opportunity for development. Faced with high debt, the company make high risk investment, hoping the company can get out of trouble and embark on a healthy development road through this kind of investment.
  The more the company needs long-term funding, the larger the investment scale of the company. As a result, the company's excessive investment behavior will be reduced. A lot of profits are hided in the macroeconomic uncertainty, if the company could make the right decision and seize the opportunity with active investment, it can also increase the long-term funding needs and the financial flexibility. However, when the corporate earnings is decreasing with a high instability in investment, the investment in research and development will be reduced. Of course, the investment demand is also reducing, the company will reduce long-term funding needs if the macroeconomic uncertainty is high.   4. Conclusion and suggestions.
  This paper mainly analyses the macroeconomic uncertainty influence the company’s investment behavior mainly by external demand, liquidity demand and the channels of long-term funds needs to the company’s funding requirements and investment mechanism. Demanding for funds is divided for liquidity demand and long-term funding demand.
  In the analysis of the effect of the company’s investment behavior, the macroeconomic uncertainty is taken into account so as to illustrate the effect of economic cycle (the period of economic recession, the period of the economic boom), the types of company (state-owned enterprises and non state enterprises), types of industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing industries) on the company’s investment behavior. With the effect of different factors, the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the company’s investment behavior is different which provide a certain reference for the enterprise to invest.
  The higher the macroeconomic uncertainty is, the more effects to the company’s investment would caused by factors such as external demand. The state-owned enterprises which are on the upward economic, higher macroeconomic uncertainty influence the investment through all the elements. The non state enterprises, on the economic downturn, would invest only by external elements. For the manufacturing industry, the financial needs influence its investment behavior. It is also the external demand factors for enterprises with low financing capacity.
  5. Conclusion
  Therefore, we believe that macro-control should pay attention to the different ways of action of economic entities. The macroeconomic uncertainty has different influence channels for company’s funds demand and investment. The performance is not the same under the situation with the influence of external factors, therefore, these mechanisms should be considered fully. When the economy is not good, external demand is the most important for the company’s investment thus the external demand should be expanded. Second, fiscal policy should pay attention to capital requirements. liquidity demand and long-term funding demand have a huge impact on the company’s investment. The adjustment of interest rate will have a great influence to financing and loan level and it plays a decisive role in the company’s investment behavior. So the interest rate formulation should be improved to be more scientific and effective.
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