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一、问题的提出神府东胜煤田储量丰富、煤质优良,有条件建成特大型的现代化矿区。根据有关部门的规划,该区一期(1995年)建设规模为3000万吨(?)年,二期(2005年)建设规模为6000万吨/年,远期为1亿吨/年。但是,该矿区地处陕北和蒙南的贫困地区,矿区只有一些地方和乡镇小煤矿,没有大规模开发的基础设施与条件。在这种情况下,矿区能否在短期内达到上述目标,值得探讨,各方面看法也不尽一致。本文在大量调研的基础上,对矿区煤炭生产过程进行了系统分析,建立了系统动力学SD(System Dynamics)模型,采
First, the issue put Shenfu Dongsheng coal reserves rich, good quality coal, the conditions for the construction of large-scale modern mining. According to the plan of relevant departments, the construction scale of the first phase (1995) in this district is 30 million tons (?) Years, the second (2005) construction scale is 60 million tons / year, and the long-term 100 million tons / year. However, the mining area is located in poverty-stricken areas in northern Shaanxi and southern Inner Mongolia. There are only a few local and township coal mines in the mining area, without the infrastructure and conditions for large-scale development. Under such circumstances, whether the mining area can meet the above objectives in a short period of time is worth discussing and the views of various parties are not consistent. Based on a large number of investigations, this paper systematically analyzes the coal production process in the mining area, and establishes the System Dynamics (SD) model