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本文指出经济计量模型在运输需求分析中存在很多局限性,限制了预测的信度和效度,提出在运输需求及趋势分析中应采用扩大背景分析方法和相似情景分析法。
This paper points out that the econometric model has many limitations in the transportation demand analysis, which limits the reliability and validity of the forecast. It is suggested that the extended background analysis method and the similar scenario analysis method should be adopted in the transportation demand and trend analysis.