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青藏高原是气候变暖的敏感地区,温度是影响青藏高原昆虫分布的重要因素。作为青藏高原的本地物种的蝗虫,西藏飞蝗Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen对高原升温的反应就是获得的有效积温增加,分布范围扩大。为了准确估计西藏飞蝗发生面积,以期为西藏飞蝗监测、预警及控制提供依据,本研究以1961-2005年90个高原气象站点地面温度资料计算了西藏飞蝗的有效积温(accumulated degree-days,ADD),建立了1961-2005年有效积温与地理位置的模型;并根据这些模型利用GIS技术,计算了各年西藏飞蝗的潜在分布面积(area of potential distribution,APD)。结果表明:温度升高能明显增加西藏飞蝗获得的有效积温,西藏飞蝗的分布主要沿高原河谷分布。1961-2005年,西藏飞蝗平均潜在分布面积为91081km2,约占高原面积3%;次热年1998年西藏飞蝗的潜在分布面积最大,达142988km2,是最冷年1968年的1.9倍。相关分析表明:西藏飞蝗潜在发生面积与年平均地面温度显著相关。趋势线分析表明:45年间青藏高原每年平均增温0.0301℃,而西藏飞蝗潜在发生面积平均每年增加504.38km2,两者之比为16756.8,温度的增加能够引起西藏飞蝗潜在分布面积大幅上升。本文为全球气候变暖对青藏高原生态的影响提供了事例依据。
The Tibetan Plateau is a sensitive area of climate warming. Temperature is an important factor affecting the distribution of insects in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen, a locust endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, responded to the warming of the plateau by increasing the effective accumulated temperature and expanding its distribution. In order to accurately estimate the occurrence area of migratory locusts in Tibet and provide a basis for the monitoring, early warning and control of locusts in Tibet, the accumulated temperature-accumulated days of Tibet migratory locusts were calculated from the surface temperature data of 90 plateau meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005 , ADD), a model of effective accumulated temperature and geographical location from 1961 to 2005 was established. Based on these models, GIS was applied to calculate the area of potential distribution (APD) of migratory locusts in Tibet. The results showed that the effective temperature increase of Tibetan migratory locusts could be increased by temperature increase. The distribution of migratory locusts in Tibet mainly distributed along the plateau valleys. From 1961 to 2005, the average potential distribution area of the locusts in Tibet was 91,081km2, accounting for about 3% of the plateau area. In the second heat year, the potential distribution area of migratory locusts in Tibet was the largest, reaching 142,988km2, 1.9 times of the coldest in 1968. Correlation analysis showed that the potential occurrence area of Locusta migratoriae significantly correlated with annual average ground temperature. The trend line analysis shows that the mean annual warming of the Tibetan Plateau in the past 45 years is 0.0301 ℃, while the potential occurrence area of the migratory locust in Tibet increases 504.38km2 annually, with the ratio of 16756.8. The increase of temperature can cause the potential distribution area of the migratory locust in Tibet to rise sharply. This article provides a case basis for the impact of global warming on the ecology of the Tibetan Plateau.