笔者基于新经济地理学的因果循环积累机制,引入产业集聚、要素回报、要素流动3个变量建立PVAR模型,通过估计结果分析、脉冲响应函数分析,对因果循环积累机制的存在性、变量间相互影响的时间维度特征进行分析验证。实证结果显示:由于市场经济体制尚不完善、政府过多干预产业集聚以及社会管理体制没有及时匹配等原因,因果循环积累过程第二个环节发生断裂,造成要素回报水平不能有效引导要素流动,从而导致因果循环积累机制在我国产业集聚过程中不能有效发挥作用。 Based on the mechanism of causal cycle accumulation in new economic geography, the author introduces PVAR model by introducing three variables of industrial agglomeration, factor return and factor flow. Through the analysis of the estimation results and the analysis of impulse response function, this paper analyzes the existence of the causal cycle accumulation mechanism, The impact of the time dimension features to verify. The empirical results show that due to the imperfect market economy system, the excessive government interference in industrial agglomeration and the lack of timely matching of social management system, the second part of the causal cycle accumulation process breaks down, causing the level of factor return can not effectively guide the flow of factors. As a result, the causation mechanism can not effectively play a role in the process of industrial agglomeration in China.