一、前言一定地区农作物产量的逐年波动,除了社会经济因素和农业技术水平的影响外,主要决定于作物生育和产量形成过程中的气象条件。而气象条件的历年变化,受大气环流的控制,大气环流的变化是形成作物生育期内不同的光、温、水条件的决定因素。太平洋海面温度(以下简称海温)的变化直接影响太平洋和东亚地区的大气环流。因而,利用海温作长期天气预报,实践证明是有成效的,现在已成为我国气象和水文部门主要的长期预报方法之一。近年的研究结果表明,太平洋海温影响副热带 I. INTRODUCTION The year-by-year fluctuations of crop production in certain areas are mainly determined by the weather conditions in crop growth and yield formation, except for the impact of socio-economic factors and agricultural technology. The changes of meteorological conditions over the years, subject to the control of the atmospheric circulation, atmospheric circulation is the formation of crop growth period different light, temperature and water conditions of the determinants. Changes in Pacific sea surface temperature (hereinafter referred to as SST) directly affect the general circulation in the Pacific Ocean and East Asia. Therefore, the use of SST for long-term weather forecasting has proved to be effective and has now become one of the major long-term forecasting methods in China’s meteorological and hydrological departments. Recent research shows that the Pacific SST affects the subtropical zone